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Derek Brunson and Edmen Shahbazyan will meet up in a middleweight bout in the main event at UFC on ESPN+ 31 Saturday at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 9 p.m. ET.
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Brunson (20-7) will meet the unbeaten Shahbazyan (11-0) in the main event after Irene Aldana was forced to withdraw from her bout with Holly Holm. UFC president Dana White said those two women will meet later in the year.
The southpaw Brunson holds a three-inch reach advantage, but the other numbers are skewed in favor of Shahbazyan. The latter has a slight 4.11 to 3.39 advantage in significant strikes landed per minute, while outpacing Brunson 52.90 to 45.94 in significant strike-accuracy percentage. Shahbazyan also loves to go to the mat, posting a 6.77 takedown average to just 2.80 for Brunson. Shahbazyan also has a significant 40.91 to 29.27 takedown-accuracy percentage advantage.
Brunson bounced back after a pair of KO/TKO losses to Jacare Souza and Israel Adesanya, where he was completely outclassed. Brunson posted unanimous decision wins over Elias Theodorou and Ian Heinisch to get back on track. Despite those two fights going to the judges, four of his past six fights, and nine of the previous 12, have finished inside the distance.
Shahbazyan is a perfect 3-for-3 since arriving in the UFC, posting a pair of KO/TKO wins and a submission victory over Jack Marshman at UFC 239 in just 72 seconds. While all of that is impressive, neither Marshman nor Charles Byrd or Brad Tavares have the resumes of Brunson. This will be a huge step up in competition for Shahbazyan, who has seen 10 of his 11 fights as a pro finish inside the distance.
Also see:
Derek Brunson vs. Edmen Shahbazyan betting odds
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 3:40 a.m. ET.
Shahbazyan (-323) is still rather raw to be this huge of a favorite, and the risk is too great at three times your potential return. The Ronda Rousey managed fighter has been impressive, yes, and Brunson’s early-round defense can be a little questionable. Still, Brunson (+255) is very tempting at this price.
Brunson’s lack of defense is dangerous against a guy like Shahbazyan, who will look to go lights out early on. If Brunson can weather what is expected to be an early shower of fists and elbows, he could hang in there and keep the ship righted. Still, playing the 3-way line is risky. Look to get creative.
SHAHBAZYAN (-193) BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION is quite a lot of chalk, too, but not as bad as the 3-way line. If you’re not feeling a specific winner, playing KO/TKO/DQ (-239) could be a better move.
Shahbazyan is known for his short fights, with 10 of his 11 bouts finishing inside the distance. Brunson has also had some early finishes recently. Betting that the fight doesn’t go the distance (-371) is just too much risk. Instead, take OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-106). It’s doubtful Brunson will finish Shahbazyan early, and the veteran should hang around long enough to make this prop cash.
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