Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are backing the fresher face, listing Shahbazyan -330 and Brunson +270 as of this writing.
Though I don’t disagree with Shahbazyan being favored, this line is far too wide for my liking. Not only does it borderline disrespect the chances of Brunson, but we still don’t have a big enough sample size on Shahbazyan to be so certain (this is MMA, after all).
Brunson might not be the biggest middleweight by today’s standards, but he carries proven one-shot knockout power that can instantly change the course of a fight. That said, I believe that Brunson’s recent demonstrations of how to muddy a fight with southpaw pressure, accompanied by counters and wrestling threats, may be the best route to defusing a potent puncher who is still not proven in the later rounds.
As seen in Shahbazyan’s bout with Darren Stewart, the Armenian fighter’s lack of fights outside of the first round revealed potential pace management issues that the young prospect (thankfully) still has time to address. But if this fight goes late and those issues resurface, then expect this one to get ugly from round three on given that neither man has championship round experience.
Ultimately, I’ll be siding with the shorter version in regards to the projections of this battle.
Shahbazyan’s head-first nature, coupled with the smaller cage inside the UFC Apex, should make for a hot cooking surface by the time the first ring card girl takes her seat. And if exchanges reach a boiling temperature within the first round, then I suspect that Shahbazyan’s speed will be able to blindside Brunson (akin to lead-legged kicks we’ve seen land in both of their previous fights) or score at a higher rate. The pick is Shahbazyan to survive some early scares en route to a second-round TKO win.
Prediction: Shahbazyan inside the distance