In a welterweight bout on the main card, Kevin Lee faces Daniel Rodriguez Saturday at UFC on ESPN 30 – also known as UFC Vegas 35 – at the UFC’s APEX Facility. Below, we analyze the UFC on ESPN 30 Lee vs. Rodriguez odds and lines, with MMA picks and predictions.
The entire card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims beginning at 7 p.m. ET and the main card at 10 p.m. ET.
Lee fought for the title at UFC 216 against Tony Ferguson and lost, and he has won just twice in five fights since then. He is also 1-3 across the past two, including took a pair of submission losses to Rafael Dos Anjos and Charles Oliveira. He hasn’t fought since March 14, 2020, after a pair of surgeries to repair the ACL in each knee.
Rodriguez walks to the octagon looking for his third consecutive victory. He knocked out Preston Parsons 3:47 into the first round on the Makhachev-Moises card. Since making his debut in the UFC Feb. 15, 2020, he has won five of six fights, including three stoppage wins.
UFC on ESPN 30 Lee vs. Rodriguez: Odds and lines
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:55 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Lee -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Rodriguez +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Total Rounds: 2.5 Rounds (Over -150 | Under +110)
- Will the fight go the distance: (Yes -117 | No -116)
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UFC on ESPN 30 Lee vs. Rodriguez: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Lee 18-6-0 | Rodriguez 15-2-0
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
RODRIGUEZ (+115) is a solid value as a short underdog, as you can expect Lee will have quite a bit of rust after a 17-month layoff.
The southpaw Rodriguez enters with a 3-inch reach disadvantage, but he is a punching machine and has an 8.07-to-3.90 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Rodriguez also enjoys a 4-inch height advantage.
Over/Under (O/U)
After a lengthy layoff, Lee will need to take it easy not to wear himself out early. His cardio could be an issue during the first round or so before he finds his sea legs.
I like YES (-117): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? as a solid bet, as Lee isn’t likely to grab the finish, and Rodriguez has gone the distance in two of his past three bouts.
In addition, play RODRIGUEZ ON POINTS (+320) for a small-unit bet with a chance to more than triple up.
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