Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the younger man, listing Smith -175 and Teixeira +155 as of this writing.
Maybe it’s because I really like and respect both of these fighters, but this matchup feels more like a pick’em fight for me – which means the value will be on the underdog.
Teixeira is a fighter who has been somewhat consistently written off in fights since his failed bid for the title due to his age, as many often forget about just how formidable his game still is. Despite being 40, Teixeira still looks comfortable in the pocket as he keeps his eyes open during exchanges, as well as knows when to take things to the floor.
If Teixeira shows the ability to enter space and execute takedowns early and often, then he could potentially get the jump on his younger foe and find a finish early. However, if Teixeira’s chin – which is the prime suspect for the Brazilian’s critics – fails him and starts to falter early (via elbows in clinch space), then he, too, could find himself on the wrong end of a short night.
That said, considering how we saw the crowd-less fights go this past weekend at UFC 249, I suspect that we could see both men follow suit in regards to fighting at a more measured and composed rate than usual (given the lack of audience-induced adrenaline).
For that reason, I’m going to ultimately predict a gritty fight between these two that sees them exchange both damage and positional controls throughout a 25-minute affair. And in that scenario, I suspect that Smith can squeak out the scorecards based on his prioritization of damage and Teixeira’s propensity to cut/wear it.
Prediction: Smith by decision