In a middleweight bout in Saturday’s main event, Uriah Hall and Sean Strickland meet at UFC on ESPN 28 at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC on ESPN 28 Hall vs. Strickland odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The prelims start at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with the main card starting at 9 p.m. ET.
Hall stands an inch shorter than his counterpart, but he holds a 3.5-inch reach advantage that he will use to keep his opponent at a distance. While he trails 5.14 to 3.34 in significant strikes landed per minute he does have a 55.18-to-41.96 significant strikes accuracy percentage advantage.
Hall should be well-rested after needing just 17 seconds to knockout veteran Chris Weidman April 24 at UFC 261 – at least that’s how it’s recorded. In reality, Weidman snapped his leg on the first kick he threw, but Hall will take the win.
Hall also had a KO/TKO win in Round 4 against Anderson Silva prior to that and enters on a four-bout win streak. His last loss was at UFC 226 after receiving a second-round KO/TKO defeat against Paulo Costa. Seven of his past eight fights have resulted in KO/TKO, with just a split-decision win September 14, 2019, against Antonio Carlos Junior as the outlier. He doesn’t like letting the judges get involved.
Of his 27 career professional fights, 19 have finished via stoppage, going 14-4 by way of KO/TKO, with one submission win.
Strickland also enters on a four-bout heater with his most recent victory by way of unanimous decision May 1 against Krzysztof Jotko. He had three KO/TKO fights, with two wins in those outings, across his last five bouts prior to facing Jotko. His last loss came May 12, 2018, at UFC 224 against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.
UFC on ESPN 28: Hall vs. Strickland: Odds and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:40 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Hall +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Strickland -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -110 | Under -110)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +140 | No -165)
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UFC on ESPN 28 Hall vs. Strickland: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Hall 18-9-0 | Strickland 23-3-0
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
I was tempted to roll the dice on Hall as a live ‘dog, but Strickland is the better play here. The Jamaican fighter Hall hasn’t really fought anybody of note, and when he did meet Weidman he won by a fluke injury. I think Strickland is on more of an upward trajectory.
In addition, I like STRICKLAND BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+155) for a little more added value. This is going to be a war, and very even in the first couple of rounds. However, I think the North Carolina native Strickland starts pulling away in Round 3 and stays ahead however long it goes after that.
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Over/Under (O/U)
This fight isn’t going to need the judges, so playing NO (-165): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is the best play on the board.
In addition, I like UNDER 4.5 ROUNDS (-145) for a little more added value, although I think we’ll get to at least the third round before Strickland starts to pull away.
In fact, I’d also take OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-140), and play the middle in this main event. That’s my play as I plan to watch this fight nearby at the Mirage in Las Vegas Saturday night.
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