In a bantamweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Kyung Ho Kang and Rani Yahya meet at UFC on ESPN 28 at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC on ESPN 28 Kang vs. Yahya odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The prelims start at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with the main card starting at 9 p.m. ET.
Kang carries a couple of advantages into this fight but the one that really sticks out is his reach advantage. The South Korean fighter holds a tremendous six-inch reach advantage, while also leading 2.52 to 1.57 in significant strikes landed per minute. In addition, he has a 59.38-to-33.33 takedown accuracy percentage lead over the Brazilian.
Kang has won each of his last three fights but they have been by a razor-thin margin with two straight split-decision victories. Four of his last seven bouts have ended up going the distance, and four of the last six have been split decisions, which is rather uncanny.
Yahya, the jiu-jitsu specialist, has been tremendous on the mat – and that’s where he’ll be looking to get this fight early. Four of his last six fights have ended with submission victories, including a second-round win March 13 over Ray Rodriguez in his last bout. He has a draw against Enrique Barzola and a unanimous decision loss to Ricky Simon at UFC 234 during that six-fight span.
UFC on ESPN 28: Kang vs. Yahya: Odds and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:13 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Kang -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Yahya +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -150 | Under +125)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -120 | No +100)
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UFC on ESPN 28 Kang vs. Yahya: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Kang 17-8-0 | Yahya 27-10-1
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
I am a little nervous about Kang and the fact he leaves his fate in the hands of the judges so frequently. I don’t like it, and I definitely don’t like that four of his last six fights were split decisions that could easily have gone another way.
YAHYA (+100) is a great value, and he is tremendous on the canvas. If Kang isn’t careful on defense, and the Brazilian can get this fight on the ground early, Yahya has the advantage.
He’ll need to do that because he can’t go upright against Kang; he won’t be able to get next to him with that six-inch reach disadvantage so he’ll have to go low for takedowns and try to offset the reach.
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Over/Under (O/U)
Kang has gone the distance frequently, but I am siding with Yahya, and therefore I believe he’ll be able to win this one on the ground. Roll with YAHYA BY SUBMISSION (+240) on the 7-way method of victory line.
If you want to toss in the KO/TKO on the 5-way line (+210), it isn’t that much more, but I don’t see Yahya knocking him out.
As such, I’d go UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+125) for a nice little value. This one won’t see the judges get involved, much to Kang’s dismay.
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