UFC on ESPN+ 28 breakdown: Will it be Kevin Lee or Charles Oliveira with the finish?

MMA Junkie fight analyst Dan Tom takes a closer look at the UFC Brasilia headliner between Kevin Lee and Charles Oliveira.

Point of interest: Odds and opinions

The oddsmakers initially opened the Brazilian as the favorite, but money has come in on the American, shifting the line to Lee -140 and Oliveira +120 as of this writing.

I can understand why Oliveira opened as the betting favorite, but I can also get why seeing a talent like Lee at plus money is tempting. We’ve seen Oliveira check out of past fights once the pressure neared a boiling point, and Lee’s not your typical wrestler given his submission savvy and growing striking skills.

However, despite my admitted bias toward wanting to see Lee do well, I still find myself leaning toward Oliveira. Both fighters have had to take hard losses throughout their UFC tenure, I just think that Oliveira has had more time to mature naturally – a process he’s quietly taken to since moving back up to 155 pounds.

Unless Lee smartly targets Oliveira’s body early and often, then I fear that he may fall into the potent pitfalls that his counterpart’s style offers by either ducking into an uppercut or shooting into a choking opportunity. I hope Lee proves this prediction wrong by surviving the storm en route to a stoppage, but the pick is Oliveira by submission in the second round.

Prediction: Oliveira inside the distance