Point of interest: Protect your neck
Given both fighter’s base of strengths, I would not be surprised to see each man try and get the jump on the other within their preferred realm. That said, each seems to thrive from the bodylock position, which means that this may come down to a battle for underhooks.
From Lee’s superb technique to his natural gifts of athleticism and reach, the former NCAA Division II national qualifier has a knack for finding the hips of his opponents. Working particularly well when able to clasp his hands for a bodylock, Lee does a great job of chaining off his takedown approaches, either taking the path of least resistance or paving one of his own.
The potential problem, however, is that establishing an underhook on Oliveira also means that you’re giving the Brazilian an overhook (as well as a possible grasp on your head).
Oliveira is masterful from most front-headlock variations, displaying the acumen to shift the dynamic of a position as he unleashes interweaving submission attempts as if he’s firing them off from an M-60 machine gun. And if Oliveira is the one working with underhooks, then he is quick to show his strength from this position by out-wrestling the often bigger and stronger party.
Nevertheless, as impressive as Oliveira’s game is, he is not beyond being outdone on the mat by a ready and willing partner – something that he’ll have standing across from him on Saturday night.
A phenomenal wrestler who seemingly embraced the submission arts early, Lee displays a preternatural ability to find and take the back in a scramble. Fueled by slick transitions and heavy hips, the 27-year old arguably crushes as much as he attempts chokes, dominantly closing off airways in a way that reminds me of a vintage B.J. Penn.
If Lee is able to establish and work from a dominant top position in this fight, then do not be surprised to see him dole out fight-changing damage. But if the American falls asleep at the steering wheel – even for a second – he’ll likely be left with a hefty bill to pay via the form of submission.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction