In a bantamweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Kyler Phillips and Raulian Paiva meet at UFC on ESPN 27 at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC on ESPN 27 Phillips vs. Paiva odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The prelims start at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with the main card starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Phillips is a perfect 3-for-3 since arriving at the UFC level, pushing past Song Yadong last time out at UFC 259 March 6. He also scored a Round 2 KO/TKO win over Cameron Else before that fight. Phillips has posted a 5.32 significant strikes landed per minute at the UFC level, and he has a 2.88 takedown average. In addition, Phillips holds a three-inch reach advantage over Paiva.
Paiva lost his first two fights at the UFC level, including a first-round TKO – Doctor’s Stoppage against Rogerio Bontorin Aug. 10, 2019. He suffered a brutal gash to the right eyebrow that required stitches. He bounced back with a KO/TKO win in Round 2 over Mark De La Rosa in Rio Rancho, N.M., and he followed it up with a unanimous-decision win over Zhalgas Zhumagulov last time out to get right back on track.
UFC on ESPN 27 Phillips vs. Paiva: Odds and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:20 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Phillips -300 (bet $300 to win $100) | Paiva +230 (bet $100 to win $230)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -225 | Under +180)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -200 | No +165)
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UFC on ESPN 27 Phillips vs. Paiva: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Phillips 9-1-0 | Paiva 20-3-0
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
Phillips (-300) heads into this fight costing you three times your potential return on the 2-way line. That’s just too expensive, so get more specific instead.
Five of Phillips’ 10 career fights have ended via KO/TKO, and all five have been victories. That includes the second-round win over Else. As such, play PHILLIPS BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+400) on the 7-way line for a much, much better value.
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Over/Under (O/U)
The books are expecting this one to go long, but I just don’t see it with the knockout potential on both sides. UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+180) is a value play with a chance to nearly double up, or playing NO (+165): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is also a decent play.
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