In a lightweight bout in Saturday’s main event, Islam Makhachev and Thiago Moises meet at UFC on ESPN 26 at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC on ESPN 26 Makhachev vs. Moises odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The prelims start at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with the main card starting at 10 p.m. ET.
Makhachev enters the octagon with seven consecutive victories, including four via unanimous decision, two by way of submission and one KO/TKO victory. His last fight March 6 at UFC 259 resulted in a third-round submission against Drew Dober.
Moises is on a three-bout win streak, picking up a unanimous decision last time out February 27 against Alexander Hernandez. However, facing Makhachev is a huge step up in terms of the quality of his opponent. Five of his six fights at the UFC level have resulted in unanimous decisions, resulting in three wins and two losses.
UFC on ESPN 26 Makhachev vs. Moises: Odds and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:55 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Makhachev -715 (bet $715 to win $100) | Moises +490 (bet $100 to win $490)
- Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -140 | Under +115)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -130 | No +105)
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UFC on ESPN 26 Makhachev vs. Moises: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Makhachev 19-1-0 | Moises 15-4-0
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
Makhachev (-715) will cost you a little more than seven times your potential return, and that’s not a recommended wager at any time. That’s just too much risk for not enough reward. Let’s get specific instead.
PASS.
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Over/Under (O/U)
MAKHACHEV ON POINTS (-115) might be the best play on the board. Four of his past seven fights have ended up going the distance, while Moises has involved the judges in five of his past six outings. While the books expect Makhachev to be a clear winner, Moises is likely to hang around and make the judges have to make a decision.
As such, play YES (-130): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?, and you needn’t specify a winner.
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