Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the native New Zealander, listing Hooker -145 and Felder +125 as of this writing.
Considering how close this fight is on paper, I really don’t have an issue with the betting spread above, as you could really make an argument for either man to be favored here.
Neither fighter has an on-paper experience edge in championship rounds (much less overall experience), as their well-rounded, offense-first sensibilities should keep things competitive regardless of what phase they’re fighting in. However, despite my background in taekwondo and stage acting wanting me to side with a guy like Felder, I find myself ever-so-slightly leaning the other way.
Perceived hometown advantages or travel intangibles aside, I think the similarities in both speed and (to an extent) styles could favor Hooker’s length and movement. No longer relying on a marauding muay Thai approach, Hooker has shown to more effectively fight off the back foot by countering and staying behind a disciplined, defensive jab.
Countering in MMA can always be a risky proposition given the factor of the judging trends our sport has suffered from, but it may be the smarter play when posed with a strong, forward-moving threat on the feet. Coupled with the previously mentioned fact that Felder tends to wear damage poorly, and it becomes a bit easier to imagine how Hooker could paint a persuasive picture in what should ultimately be a competitive fight.
Unless Felder can find success with calf kicks at distance or make things fight ugly in close, then I give a slight edge to Hooker’s stylistic flexibility down the stretch of five hard rounds.
Prediction: Hooker by decision