UFC on ESPN+ 26 breakdown: Close on paper, who wins Paul Felder vs. Dan Hooker banger?

MMA Junkie fight analyst Dan Tom takes a closer look at the UFC Auckland main event between Paul Felder and Dan Hooker.

Point of interest: Odds and opinions

Dan Hooker (blue gloves) and Al Iaquinta at UFC 243. (Jasmin Frank, USA TODAY Sports)

The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the native New Zealander, listing Hooker -145 and Felder +125 as of this writing.

Considering how close this fight is on paper, I really don’t have an issue with the betting spread above, as you could really make an argument for either man to be favored here.

Neither fighter has an on-paper experience edge in championship rounds (much less overall experience), as their well-rounded, offense-first sensibilities should keep things competitive regardless of what phase they’re fighting in. However, despite my background in taekwondo and stage acting wanting me to side with a guy like Felder, I find myself ever-so-slightly leaning the other way.

Perceived hometown advantages or travel intangibles aside, I think the similarities in both speed and (to an extent) styles could favor Hooker’s length and movement. No longer relying on a marauding muay Thai approach, Hooker has shown to more effectively fight off the back foot by countering and staying behind a disciplined, defensive jab.

Countering in MMA can always be a risky proposition given the factor of the judging trends our sport has suffered from, but it may be the smarter play when posed with a strong, forward-moving threat on the feet. Coupled with the previously mentioned fact that Felder tends to wear damage poorly, and it becomes a bit easier to imagine how Hooker could paint a persuasive picture in what should ultimately be a competitive fight.

Unless Felder can find success with calf kicks at distance or make things fight ugly in close, then I give a slight edge to Hooker’s stylistic flexibility down the stretch of five hard rounds.

Prediction: Hooker by decision