In a women’s flyweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Marina Rodriguez and Michelle Waterson meet at UFC on ESPN 24 – also known as UFC Vegas 26 – at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC on ESPN 24 Rodriguez vs. Waterson odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The prelims kick off at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, with the main card beginning at 8 p.m. ET.
UFC on ESPN 24 Rodriguez vs. Waterson: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Rodriguez -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Waterson +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
- Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -225 | Under +175)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -190 | No +160)
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UFC on ESPN 24 Rodriguez vs. Waterson: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Rodriguez 13-1-2 | Waterson 18-8-0
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
Rodriguez (-225) stands in as the rather heavy favorite over Waterson (+175), a.k.a. “The Karate Hottie”. The Brazilian fighter stands three inches taller than the American, and Rodriguez also possesses a three-inch reach advantage.
In addition, Rodriguez has a 4.86-to-3.58 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while Waterson has been a little better in the ground game statistics.
Rodriguez has gone the distance five times in her six fights at the UFC level, while Waterson has gone the distance in seven consecutive bouts with losses in two of her last three.
As such, I like RODRIGUEZ BY DECISION (+120) on the 5-way line.
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Over/Under (O/U)
The Over 4.5 Rounds (-225) is still a little too expensive for my liking, and there’s not a lot of wiggle room here. Playing YES (-190): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a little expensive, too, but the better play on the board in terms of fight distance.
Waterson just doesn’t get finishes, and Rodriguez hasn’t been getting them lately, either.
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