Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the younger man, listing Blaydes -240 and Dos Santos +200 as of this writing.
Even though I believe that any betting line with over a 2-to-1 spread at heavyweight is worth looking at (especially when you have a former champion as the underdog), I can certainly understand why Blaydes comes in as your favorite.
Sure, Dos Santos might be able to recreate his 2011 knockout over Velasquez (which looks spookily similar to Blaydes’ second loss to Ngannou), and that would be par for the course in regards to heavyweight MMA. However, if the former champ fails to find traction with his punches within the first two rounds, then I believe there’s a strong possibility we may see Dos Santos on the wrong end of another prolonged beating.
It’s hard not to love Dos Santos for his fan-friendly personality and fight stylings, but his propensity to sometimes play fast and loose with punches seemingly has cost him more and more as his career advances.
Dos Santos also has traditionally shown a tendency to back himself into the fence, typically leading with his head to exit space. This habit not only taxes the Brazilian in both victories and defeats via striking damage, but it also may put him in a particularly disadvantageous position against an opponent who will be looking to corral him and take him down.
If Dos Santos backs himself into the fence for Blaydes here, then I suspect that Blaydes will get his brutal brand of grappling and ground strikes going, forcing a stoppage down the stretch. The pick is Blaydes by fourth-round TKO.
Prediction: Blaydes inside the distance