Point of interest: Odds and opinions
Despite some money coming in on the underdog, the oddsmakers and public still seem to be siding with the bigger man, listing Blachowicz -190 and Souza +165 as of this writing.
Considering the regard that I and many hold Souza in (as well as the fact that this fight will be taking place in Brazil), I’m not surprised to see support coming in for the beloved Brazilian.
Blachowicz may be experienced in his own right, but he’s never felt the unique experience of fighting a Brazilian (icon, no less) in Brazil. Blachowicz has arrived in Sao Paulo early and appears to be taking this opportunity seriously (as he doesn’t strike me as the type of guy to lose mental focus easily), so I have much fewer questions when it comes to him.
Souza, however, is a different story.
Not only does Souza carry the obvious intangible of an extra 20 pounds (and that’s not including the additional weight opposite of him, mind you), but we still aren’t exactly sure of how his style will translate to this division.
There are some fight analysts, like Connor Ruebusch and Phil Mackenzie, who pose a general theory that fighters who move up in weight to primarily grapple (Kevin Lee, Chris Weidman or Luke Rockhold) generally do worse than fighters who move up to utilize speed and striking (Kelvin Gastelum, Robert Whittaker, etc.) – and I tend to agree.
So, if we’re using this theory as a general rule of thumb, Souza may actually have more potent paths to success by staying on the feet in this fight, utilizing his speed and ability to explode into slipping and ripping counters. The potential problem, though, may be the fact that Souza’s new striking style also seems to come with an attitude toward damage that could eventually turn into a coffin nail-like situation for a fighter in the latter stages of their career.
Win or lose, we’ve seen an uptick in the damage trends for Souza as he repeatedly attempts to slip on the inside and go to the body of his opposition. And even though Souza knows how to fight well when tired, the Brazilian vet’s somewhat-suspect gas tank seems to leave him swinging with a body language that makes it difficult for judges to give him rounds. Add in Blachowicz’s ability to feed Souza straight shots and counters, and I’m not sure I like where this road leads for the former Strikeforce champ.
Ultimately, regardless of style equations or theories, I can’t help but be skeptical of any fighter who finds themselves in a five-round main event for their first fight in a new division. Perceived “hometown” advantage or not, it is not smart to test the handling of a new vehicle at the highest of speeds no matter how familiar you are with the track. For that reason, I’ll side with Blachowicz to break Souza down with straight shots early, finding a finish off the breaks in rounds three or four.