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In a 5-round bantamweight bout in the main event, Cory Sandhagen and Umar Nurmagomedov meet Saturday at UFC on ABC 7 at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ABC 7: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin noon ET, on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 3 p.m. ET, on ABC/ESPN.
Records: Sandhagen (17-4-0) | Nurmagomedov (17-0-0)
Sandhagen lost in his first and only UFC title fight against Petr Yan at UFC 267, but he has bounced back with 3 straight victories over Song Yadong, Marlon Vera and Rob Font, with the past 2 wins coming via decision.
For Nurmagomedov, he is unbeaten in 5 fights at the UFC level. In fact, he has never lost in 17 career pro bouts since Dec. 16, 2016. He picked up a unanimous-decision win March 2 against Bekzat Almakhan, coming on the heels of a Round 1 KO/TKO of Raoni Barcelos in Jan. 2023.
In 17 fights for Nurmagomedov, he has won 2 times via KO/TKO, and 7 times via submission. For Sandhagen, he has never been knocked out, going 7-0 via the method. He is 3-1 by way of submission, too.
Sandhagen holds a slight 1-inch reach advantage, and the switch-stance fighter has a 5.33-to-4.75 significant strikes landed per minute advantage.
Nurmagomedov is much more accurate at 74.49% on those strikes, while Sandhagen checks in at just 50.04%. Nurmagomedov is strong in the takedown game, too, posting a 4.51 takedown average and 56.00% takedown accuracy percentage.
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UFC on ABC 7: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Sandhagen +280 (bet $100 to win $280) | Nurmagomedov -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -150 | Under +205)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -134 | No +106)
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UFC on ABC 7: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
There is no value playing the unbeaten Nurmagomedov (-350), as he will cost you 3½ times your potential return. There is just no value playing such a heavy favorite. Let’s get more specific instead.
When Sandhagen has been beaten since Oct. 30, 2021, he has made the opposition work. He lost via split decision to TJ Dillashaw, and he lost via unanimous decision to Yan in the title fight.
If Sandhagen goes down, it will be because the unbeaten Dagestani fighter wowed the judges. Play NURMAGOMEDOV BY POINTS (+115) for a much better value.
Over/Under (O/U)
YES (-134): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? isn’t a bad play, and it isn’t priced out line.
Sandhagen has gone the distance in 2 straight, and 4 of the past 5 bouts, against top competition.
For Nurmagomedov, he has needed the judges in 2 of his past 3 outings. OVER 4.5 ROUNDS (-150) is a suggested play if you’d like a little wiggle room in the event of a 5th-round finish.
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
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