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In a 3-round men’s featherweight bout on the main card, Steve Garcia and Kyle Nelson meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 242 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 100 and UFC Vegas 97 — at UFC Apex. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 242: Garcia vs. Nelson odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+ with the main card starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Records: Garcia (16-5-0) | Nelson (16-5-1)
Garcia is a southpaw who enters this bout with a 4-inch reach advantage. The 32-year-old also has a 5.00-to-3.65 significant strikes landed per minute advantage while hitting those strikes at a 63.64% accuracy. On the flip side, Nelson is just 50.18% on his significant strikes.
In the takedown average, the difference is rather negligible, with Garcia holding a slim 1.27-to-1.10 lead. Both fighters have a 0.63 submission average, too.
Garcia, a.k.a. “Mean Machine,” enters this bout with 4 consecutive victories, all via KO/TKO. That includes a win over SeungWoo Choi last time out in just 96 seconds and a Round 2 KO/TKO of Melquizael Costa prior to that in Dec. 2023.
Garcia’s previous 6 bouts have ended by way of KO/TKO, with 5 wins. The last time he didn’t have an early finish was a unanimous-decision loss to Luis Pena in his UFC debut Feb. 29, 2020.
For Nelson, he has snapped onto track after a rough start to his UFC career. After going 1-4 in his 1st 5 bouts with the company, Nelson has 3 straight wins, including a KO/TKO in Round 1 against veteran Bill Algeo last time out. Prior to that, he had a pair of unanimous-decision victories over Fernando Padilla at Noche UFC and Blake Bilder at UFC 289.
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UFC Fight Night 242: Garcia vs. Nelson odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:32 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Garcia -180 (bet $180 to win $100) | Nelson +152 (bet $100 to win $152)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +136 | Under -174)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +450 | No -750)
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UFC Fight Night 242: Garcia vs. Nelson picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
It’s a little too expensive to back Garcia (-180) straight up on the 2-way moneyline, but despite the 3-bout win streak for Nelson (+152), the latter cannot be trusted.
Instead, let’s roll with GARCIA BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (-145) on the 5-way line. You could play just KO/TKO and DQ on the 7-way line, but it’s literally pennies more and you add the possibility of a tap out.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (+136) is worth a roll of the dice here.
Yes, Garcia has 6 straight bouts decided by KO/TKO, with each of the past 5 fights not making it past the halfway point of Round 2. So, playing Over will take a little bit of a leap of faith.
However, Nelson has gone the distance in 4 straight fights, so he knows how to hang around and avoid the big kill shot.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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