In a heavyweight bout in the main card, Augusto Sakai takes on Don’Tale Mayes Saturday at UFC Fight Night 220 — also known as UFC Vegas 70 — at UFC APEX in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 220: Sakai vs. Mayes odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims are on ESPN+ starting at 4:30 p.m. ET with the main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.
Sakai heads into this fight with 4 consecutive KO/TKO losses, and he might be fighting to keep his roster spot in the UFC as he might be done with the company with another loss. He was knocked out in the 2nd round last time out against Serghei Spivac in August.
Eight of the Brazilian’s last 10 fights have been stoppages, with 4 wins and 4 losses. His last time going the distance was also his most recent win, a split-decision victory over Blagoy Ivanov in late May of 2020.
Mayes fought to a no-contest against Hamdy Abdelwahab at UFC 277 in July, snapping a 2-fight win streak. His last win was a 3rd-round KO/TKO against Josh Parisian in Dec. 2021.
Mayes is quite imposing, standing 4 inches taller than his counterpart, while also holding a 3-inch reach advantage over Sakai. The latter has a 4.73-to-3.65 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, although Mayes is also better in the takedown department.
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UFC Fight Night 220: Sakai vs. Mayes odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:27 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Sakai -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mayes +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -190 | Under +135)
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes (+140) | No (-200)
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UFC Fight Night 220: Sakai vs. Mayes picks and predictions
Records: Sakai (15-5-1) | Mayes (9-4-0)
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
MAYES (+105) is a strong play as the short ‘dog.
Sakai hasn’t shown any signs of pulling out of his nosedive, getting knocked out in 4 straight bouts against Spivac, Tai Tuivasa, Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Alistar Overeem. It’s been nearly 3 calendar years since Sakai has tasted victory, and it isn’t going to happen against Mayes.
Mayes has all of the physical tools to push Sakai to the limit. While Sakai holds the significant strikes landed per minute advantage, Mayes has a 1.11-to-0.13 takedown advantage, with tremendous accuracy, too. He will be able to do enough to wow the judges for a decision win, even if he doesn’t get the stoppage.
Over/Under (O/U)
No (-200): Fight to go the distance will cost you 2 times your potential return, so that’s a little too expensive.
Instead, look to MAYES BY KO/TKO (+195) for the knockout victory. Sakai’s defense has been abysmal lately, and he could be washed. Mayes will use that huge reach advantage to draw Sakai in and out, forcing the Brazilian to fight his fight, rather than do what he wants.
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