In a heavyweight bout on the main card, Andrei Arlovski meets Carlos Felipe Saturday at UFC Fight Night 195 – also known as UFC Vegas 40 and UFC on ESPN+ 53 – at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC Fight Night 195 Arlovski vs. Felipe odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims at 4:30 p.m. ET and the main card at 7 p.m. ET.
The 42-year-old “Pitbull” is coming off a unanimous-decision victory April 17 against Chase Sherman and has won three of his last four, all via UD. His three losses since the start of 2019 are against Augusto Sakai, Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Tom Aspinall, three of the top fighters in the division. Just two of his last 12 fights, excluding a no contest in 2018, have ended via stoppage.
Felipe, who was just four years old when Arlovski turned pro in 1999, enters on a three-bout win streak since losing his UFC debut to Serghei Spivac in July 2020. All four of his fights at the UFC level have gone the distance.
UFC Fight Night 195 Arlovski vs. Felipe: Odds and lines
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:50 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Arlovski -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Felipe -112 (bet $112 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -220 | Under +155)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -155 | No +112)
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UFC Fight Night 195 Arlovski vs. Felipe: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Arlovski (31-20-0) | Felipe (11-1-0)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
People have continually tried to write off the veteran Arlovski, but he is like Rasputin. He has been a veteran for a long time, yet he just continues to re-invent himself and stay at the top of his game.
However, FELIPE (-112) is a beast. He holds a 4.88-to-3.62 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, and while Arlovski has a two-inch reach advantage, Felipe will find a way to get next to the veteran and work the body.
Over/Under (O/U)
Both of these fighters haven’t had a lot of stoppages lately. Arlovski has had three of his last four fights go the distance while seeing just two stoppages in his last 12.
Felipe is 4-for-4 going the distance at the UFC level. As such, YES (-155): WILL THIS FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is the way to go. I’d play FELIPE ON POINTS (+225) lightly in the Method of Victory, too.
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