In a heavyweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Justin Tafa and Jared Vanderaa meet at UFC Fight Night 188 – also known as UFC on ESPN+ 46 and UFC Vegas 27 – at the UFC’s APEX Facility. Below, we analyze the UFC Fight Night 188 Tafa vs. Vanderaa odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The prelims kick off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with the main card beginning at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
UFC Fight Night 188 Tafa vs. Vanderaa: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:35 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Tafa -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Vanderaa +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -120 | Under +100)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +250 | No -300)
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UFC Fight Night 188 Tafa vs. Vanderaa: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Tafa 4-2-0 | Vanderaa 11-5-0
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
I am feeling the underdog VANDERAA (+155) for the upset special in this battle of heavyweights.
Tafa (-185) heads into this one with just a lone victory in three fights since arriving at the UFC level, including a split-decision loss against Carlos Felipe last time out on Jan. 16. That distance fight was his first time in six career bouts that he did not have a KO/TKO win or loss.
Vanderaa made his UFC debut on Feb. 20, 2021, and he was dropped by Serghei Spivac in the second round. The American will be looking to use his four-inch height and six-inch reach advantages to his benefit.
Tafa is a punching machine, so Vanderaa will need to show good defense, something he wasn’t able to do against Spivac. If he can keep the fight upright, he’ll score the upset against the southpaw.
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Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-120) is a good bet, as both of these fighters are in need of a win, as they look to build momentum in their fledgling UFC careers. So they likely won’t take many chances early on.
In addition, No (-300): Will the fight go the distance? seems like a great play, and almost a certainty.
But risking three times your potential return on a standalone bet is not a good play. If you can involve it in a big parlay, that might be worth it.
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