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In a 5-round women’s bantamweight championship bout in the co-main event, Raquel Pennington and Julianna Pena meet Saturday at UFC 307 at Delta Center in Salt Lake City. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC 307: Pennington vs. Pena odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNews/ESPN+, and the main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.
Records: Pennington (16-9-0) | Pena (12-5-0)
Pennington lost her 1st championship attempt against Amanda Nunes back in May 2018 at UFC 224. She fought hard to position herself for another chance at a strap, and she topped Mayra Bueno Silva via unanimous decision at UFC 297 in late January to finally become a champion. Now, she faces her 1st title defense.
Pennington has won 6 consecutive bouts, with 5 of those victories coming by way of decision. The lone finish was a 2nd-round submission against Macy Chiasson in Dec. 2021.
Pena steps into the octagon for the 1st time since suffering a unanimous-decision setback to Nunes back at UFC 277 in a title bout. She was trying to defend her belt after submitting Nunes at UFC 269 for her 1st title. Pena was supposed to fight a 3rd and deciding fight with Nunes at UFC 289, but Pena had to pull out due to broken ribs suffered in training camp.
Pena holds a 1.5-inch reach advantage over the champ, while Pennington has a 4.14-to-3.16 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Pena is slightly more accurate at 65.0%, to 60.24% for the champ. Pena’s ground game has been much better, too, and he dominates in takedown average (1.94) and takedown accuracy percentage (55.17%).
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UFC 307: Pennington vs. Pena odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Pennington -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Pena +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -250 | No +175)
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UFC 307: Pennington vs. Pena picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
PENNINGTON (-165) is a solid bet to get the job done on the 2-way line.
While Pena (+135) has a slight reach advantage, and she is a little more accurate on her significant strikes, she hasn’t fought in over 26 months. It remains to be seen how her cardio will be after not having been involved in a meaningful fight since July 30, 2022.
In addition, Pennington is likely to take this the distance. She has ended up going the distance in 3 consecutive bouts, 8 of the past 9 fights, and 11 of the previous 13 outings since UFC 202. She wins regularly, but she just doesn’t get finishes.
As a result, also look to PENNINGTON BY DECISION (+100) at even-money for the method of victory.
Over/Under (O/U)
Yes (-250): Will the fight go the distance? will set you back 2 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for not nearly enough reward.
Again, 11 of the past 13 fights have gone the distance for Pennington, while Pena has ended up needing the assistance of the judges to determine a winner in 4 of her previous 8 outings.
PASS.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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