[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
In a 3-round welterweight bout on the main card, Kamaru Usman and Khamzat Chimaev meet Saturday at UFC 294 at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s around the UFC 294: Usman vs. Chimaev odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ starting at 10 a.m. ET with the main card following on Pay-Per-View (PPV) at 2 p.m. ET.
Records: Usman (20-3-0) | Chimaev (12-0-0)
Usman, the former champ, is looking to rebound after getting drummed in 2 straight losses against Leon Edwards for the strap. He lost via KO/TKO to Edwards at UFC 278, received another shot, and fought to a much closer majority decision loss at UFC 286. At 36 years old, the sun is starting to set on the “Nigerian Nightmare”, but facing off against Chimaev will be no easy feat.
Usman has ended up going the distance in 11 of his 16 fights at the UFC level, with 4 wins via KO/TKO, and the loss to Edwards via the same method. With Usman, you can throw out the submission, because it isn’t happening. You’ll get a mostly upright fight with him.
Chimaev has burst onto the UFC scene with 6 straight victories since his submission win in Round 2 over John Phillips in mid-July 2020 on Fight Island, also in the UAE. In his 6 bouts at the UFC level, he has finished inside the distance 5 times, with 3 submission wins, 2 via KO/TKO, and a unanimous-decision win over Gilbert Burns.
Chimaev will likely try to get Usman to the mat where “Borz” can try to put a boa constrictor-type squeeze on the former champ. Usman wants the fight to be upright, while Chimaev will like nothing better than getting the Nigerian out of his comfort zone, and onto the canvas where he does his best work.
Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.
UFC 294: Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 6:11 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Usman +265 (bet $100 to win $265) | Chimaev -330 (bet $330 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over +126 | Under -160)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +154 | No -200)
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
UFC 294: Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Chimaev (-330) is a heavy favorite, and he’ll have a pro-Chimaev crowd fighting under the UAE flag.
But don’t discount Usman (+265), who is a former champ, and who hasn’t lost to anyone other than Edwards in the past decade. He has the heart of a champion, and will leave it all on the octagon canvas Saturday night one way or the other.
The only time Usman has lost to someone other than Edwards was when Jose Caceres picked up a submission win via a rear-naked choke at CFA 11 back on May 24, 2013. That’s the only submission loss of Usman’s career. Obviously he has changed dramatically in a decade, but that sticks out.
Working on the ground is Chimaev’s specialty, and that’s where “Borz” will want to get this fight as quickly as possible, as he won’t want to go toe-to-toe, letting the former champ tee off and stay in the fight.
CHIMAEV BY SUBMISSION (+310) for a chance to more than triple up is your best bet here. It’s risky, as again, it’s been more than 10 years since Usman has lost via this method. But that’s the hole in his game, if he has one, and it’s Chimaev’s strength.
The “Double Chance” prop is a little more safe for more conservative bettors, playing CHIMAEV BY KO/TKO OR SUBMISSION (-120), but it obviously doesn’t pay nearly as well, either.
Over/Under (O/U)
UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-160) is worth playing lightly, although it’s certainly possible this fight needs the judges to decide a winner. It will be tough. Usman is a power puncher, while Chimaev is tremendous in the ground game. We should see a finish, but it won’t be a super early one, either.
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=2559]