In a heavyweight bout on the main card, Derrick Lewis and Marcos Rogerio de Lima meet Saturday at UFC 291 at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 291: Lewis vs. Rogerio de Lima odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims are on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET, with the prelims are on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET and the main card is on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.
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Records: Lewis (26-11-0) | Rogerio de Lima (21-9-1)
Lewis takes the walk on a 3-bout losing skid. That includes a pair of 1st-round setbacks against Serghei Spivac in February and Sergei Pavlovich last July. Win or lose, “The Black Beast” has had 7 consecutive fights finish inside the distance, with 3 wins via KO/TKO, 3 losses via KO/TKO and a loss by way of submission.
Rogerio de Lima has picked up victories in each of the past 2 outings, including a unanimous-decision win over Waldo Cortes-Acosta last time out in late April. He has gone the distance in 3 of his previous 5 outings.
Lewis has a 4-inch reach advantage, but Rogerio de Lima holds a 3.62-to-2.54 significant strikes landed per minute edge and is much more accurate on those strikes at 66.78% to just 52.57% for Lewis. In addition, Rogerio de Lima has managed a 1.35 takedown average to just 0.59 for Lewis, and he has a 47.62% takedown accuracy percentage to only 28.13%.
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UFC 291: Lewis vs. Rogerio de Lima odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:36 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Lewis +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Rogerio de Lima -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +150 | Under -200)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +400 | No -700)
UFC 291: Lewis vs. Rogerio de Lima picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Rogerio de Lima (-225) should add to the woes of Lewis (+185), who has suffered a pair of setbacks in the 1st round while losing 3 fights in a row.
The Brazilian fighter has been much more dependable lately, picking up 4 wins in the past 5 outings. However, you can’t risk more than 2 times your potential return.
Take ROGERIO DE LIMA IN ROUND 1 (+100) at even money instead of the outright play on him to just record the victory. You can also play ROGERIO DE LIMA BY KO/TKO/DQ IN ROUND 1 (+125) for a little more value.
Over/Under (O/U)
Under 1.5 Rounds (-200) will cost you 2 times your potential return, and that’s quite expensive, and you can’t play No (-700): Fight to go the distance, as that’s way more costly.
AVOID, and simply focus on the round betting and method instead.
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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