In a middleweight championship bout in the co-main event, Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira meet Saturday at UFC 281 at Madison Square Garden in New York. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with the prelims on ESPNews/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, and the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.
Adesanya defended his middleweight title with a unanimous-decision (UD) win over Jared Cannonier last time out at UFC 276 in July. It’s his third straight UD victory, with wins over Robert Whittaker and Marvin Vettori, too.
Since arriving at the UFC level, “The Last Stylebender” has managed an 11-1 record, with a lone defeat coming via UD to Jan Blachowicz when he scooted up a weight class trying to become a 2-class champ.
The 33-year-old switch-stance fighter looks to drop Pereira, who has been on the fast track for a title shot.
Pereira is 3-0 since arriving at the UFC level, recording two KO/TKO wins and a UD over fellow Brazilian Bruno Silva. Last time out, Pereira destroyed Sean Strickland via 1st-round KO/TKO at UFC 276.
Adesanya has a 1-inch reach advantage, while Pereira has a 6.29-to-3.93 significant strikes landed per minute advantage in his brief time at the UFC level.
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UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira odds
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:50 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Adesanya -230 (bet $230 to win $100) | Pereira +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
- Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -127 | Under -107)
- Fight to go distance: Yes (-125) | No (-110)
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UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira picks and predictions
Records: Adesanya (23-1-0) | Pereira (6-1-0)
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Adesanya (-230) puts his strap on the line here, and Pereira (+175) has a chance to make history in the main event. But it isn’t happening. Not this time.
Adesanya knows what it takes to wow the judges with the technical aspects. His fights can be somewhat boring — he is like the Floyd Mayweather of the middleweight class. Adesanya doesn’t get a lot of finishes, but he outpoints fighters. He doesn’t take a lot of risks, doesn’t take a lot of unnecessary punches, and knows how to play it safe.
Look for this to be a distance-striking fight with few takedown attempts, as neither of these fighters will be eager to get to the canvas or walk into punches while upright. Pereira will play it just as safe as Adesanya here.
The best play on the board is not Adesanya on the 2-way line, but ADESANYA BY POINTS (+110) at plus money.
Over/Under (O/U)
YES: FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE (-125) is the play in all Adesanya fights, regardless of opponents. Neither of these fighters will be super aggressive for the knockout, or even less likely, the submission attempt.
The good news with Adesanya fights when buying a Pay-Per-View card is that you will get your money’s worth in terms of time spent watching.
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