It a lightweight bout on the preliminary card, Brad Riddell takes on Renato Moicano Saturday at UFC 281 at Madison Square Garden in New York City. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the UFC 281: Brad Riddell vs. Renato Moicano odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims and prelims are available on ESPN+ with the early prelims at 6 p.m. ET and the prelims at 8 p.m. ET. The main card is available via pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET.
Riddell is coming off 2 straight losses over the last 12 months — a 3rd round knockout by Rafael Fiziev in Dec. and a 1st round guillotine choke by Jalin Turner in July. “Quake” was on a 7-fight win streak before that, including his first 4 fights in the UFC. All 4 of those UFC victories were via decision and lasted all 3 rounds.
Moicano has won 2 of his last 3 fights but is coming off a 5-round unanimous decision loss to Rafael dos Anjos at UFC 272 in March. However, it was a catchweight bout at 160 pounds that Moicano agreed to just days before the event. Moicano boasts much more experience heading into this fight, with an 8-5 record in the UFC to Riddell’s 4-2 UFC record.
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UFC 281: Riddell vs. Moicano odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:36 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Riddell +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Moicano -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -110 | Under -125)
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes (-110) | No (-125)
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UFC 281: Riddell vs. Moicano picks and predictions
Records: Brad Riddell (10-3) | Renato Moicano (16-5-1)
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
The line is close as these fighters are quite evenly matched. They hold similar averages of significant strikes per minute (Riddell: 4.73; Moicano: 4.80) and takedowns per 15 minutes (Riddell: 1.85; Moicano: 1.70). The eye test shows that Riddell is more of a well-rounded striker while Moicano is a better grappler and more aggressive with shots to the head.
Riddell should try to keep this fight off the ground so he can land some technically-sound strikes and kicks on Moicano who is susceptible to eating a lot of hits. Moicano should try to out-wrestle Riddell and lock in a submission — that’s how Riddell has lost 2 of his 3 fights.
The problem for Moicano is that Riddell does have a solid takedown defense (62%) and should be able to earn the judges’ favor by landing more strikes and staying disciplined. Ultimately, I see this as a win for RIDDELL (+102) who could take this bout all 3 rounds and pick up a unanimous decision win.
Over/Under (O/U)
Five of Riddell’s last 7 fights went the distance and were all decision victories — 4 of them were unanimous. With Riddell looking to stand up and avoid submissions and Moicano never winning a fight by knockout, it seems likely this will last all 3 rounds.
Bet OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-110).
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