In a middleweight bout on the main card, Paulo Costa and Luke Rockhold meet Saturday at UFC 278 at Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah. Below, we analyze the UFC 278 Costa vs. Rockhold odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with the prelims starting at 8 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+. The main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-per-view.
Costa was dumped in Round 2 by KO/TKO against Israel Adesanya in a title bout at UFC 253, and he followed that up with a unanimous-decision loss to Marvin Vettori in the main event in October.
The 2 losses come on the heels of a 5-0 run to begin his UFC career, and 4 of those victories came via KO/TKO. He looks to get that mojo back in this one against the veteran Rockhold.
Rockhold lost in his light heavyweight debut against Jan Blachowicz July 6, 2019. That’s the last time we saw him in a competitive bout inside the octagon. He had announced his retirement but reversed course to give it one more shot at the welterweight level.
Costa made weight for UFC 278, which is huge after he missed weight by 25 pounds last time out against Vettori. He looks chiseled, and focused.
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UFC 278 Costa vs. Rockhold odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Costa -370 (bet $370 to win $100) | Rockhold +265 (bet $100 to win $265)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -113 | Under -120)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +255 | No -400)
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UFC 278 Costa vs. Rockhold picks and predictions
Records: Costa (13-2-0) | Rockhold (16-5-0)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
Rockhold (+265) is back in the octagon for the first time in over 3 calendar years. There is concern about his conditioning and ability to go the distance considering the long layoff.
In addition, Costa (-370) looked chiseled at weigh-ins, and was vocal about his disdain for the USADA and their testing procedures. He looks to be focused more than ever, and ready to make a statement. However, risking nearly 4 times your potential return is not a good bet.
Instead, get specific. COSTA BY TKO/KO (-200) is still a little on the expensive side, but Rockhold has been knocked out in each of his past 2 fights, and he is likely to be fairly sluggish in this one.
Over/Under (O/U)
No (-380): Fight to go the distance will cost you nearly 4 times your return, and as we covered above, that’s not a good strategy.
Instead, play OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-113), and look for a Costa finish in the latter half of Round 2 or into Round 3. Rockhold might have had a long layoff, and a brief retirement, but he is a prideful fighter looking for one more moment in the sun. He won’t get rolled like last time out against Blachowicz.
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