In a heavyweight bout on the main card, Derrick Lewis and Sergei Pavlovich meet Saturday at UFC 277 at American Airlines Arena in Dallas. Below, we analyze the UFC 277 Lewis vs. Pavlovich odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the early prelims starting at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, the prelims starting at 8 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the main card at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.
Lewis, a.k.a. “The Black Beast”, has had 5 consecutive KO/TKO fights and picked up 3 wins along that stretch. His last fight against Tai Tuivasa at UFC 271 resulted in a 2nd-Round loss. The last decision for Lewis was a unanimous-decision victory against Ilir Latifi at UFC 247 in February 2020.
Pavlovich takes the walk to the octagon with a 5-inch reach advantage. He also holds a 6.08-to-2.56 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while Lewis is the fighter most likely to score points via the takedown.
Pavlovich doesn’t mess around on the ground. He has 3 straight wins via KO/TKO, all in the 1st Round. That includes a victory in mid-March against Shamil Abdurakhimov, as well as wins over Maurice Greene and Marcelo Golm. He is 3-0 since losing his UFC debut against Alistair Overeem in November 2018.
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UFC 277 Lewis vs. Pavlovich odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:04 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Lewis +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Pavlovich -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Total rounds: Over 1.5 (+120) | Under 1.5 (-165)
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes (+360) | No (-650)
[tipico]
UFC 277 Lewis vs. Pavlovich picks and predictions
Records: Lewis (26-9-0) | Pavlovich (15-1-0)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
PAVLOVICH (-160) is a solid value as a moderate favorite. He heads into the octagon with a tremendous 84-inch reach, 5 more inches than Lewis. That will keep Lewis at a distance, which is good news since “The Black Beast” holds the UFC knockout record.
In fact, look for Pavlovich to give Lewis a taste of his own medicine. Moving in and out, using his reach advantage to pick and choose the right time for a knockout opportunity at this leisure. PAVLOVICH BY TKO/KO (-105) is the best chance for a win in method of victory.
Over/Under (O/U)
No (-650): Fight to go the distance is not worth playing. Any wager costing you this much for such a little return and not a good long-term betting strategy.
Instead, look to round block betting, playing PAVLOVICH IN ROUND 2 (+380) and PAVLOVICH IN ROUND 3 (+1000) for the win. Yes, you’ll lose one of those ends even if he wins in Rounds 2-3, but you’ll still be well ahead, especially if he gets the 3rd-Round finish.
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