In a women’s strawweight championship bout on the main card, Rose Namajunas and Carla Esparza meet Saturday at UFC 274 at Footprint Center in Phoenix, Ariz. Below, we analyze the UFC 274 Namajunas vs. Esparza odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The fights can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+ with the early prelims starting at 5:30 p.m. ET and the prelims starting at 8 p.m. The main card begins on Pay-Per-View at 10:00 p.m. ET.
Namajunas takes the walk to the octagon with 3 consecutive victories since her loss against Jessica Andrade at UFC 237 cost her the strap. She avenged that loss with a win over Andrade at UFC 251, and she snagged the belt from Zhang Weili with a first-round knockout at UFC 261. She defended the strap with a split-decision win over Zhang at UFC 268, too.
Namajunas heads in with a 4-inch height advantage, and 2-inch reach advantage over Esparza, while also owning a 4.01-to-2.34 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. However, Esparza is much more accurate, with a 65.46 significant strikes accuracy percentage compared to just 45.41 for the champ. Esparza has many more takedowns, too, although Namajunas is better in the submission category.
Esparza has won 5 straight fights, including a KO/TKO of Yan Xiaonan last time out May 22, 2021. Four of her last 5 fights went the distance, with 9 of the past 11 needing the help of the judges to determine a winner.
Namajunas has gone the distance in 3 of her last 5 bouts, with 3 KO/TKOs (2-1) across the previous 6 outings.
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UFC 274 Namajunas vs. Esparza odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:42 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Namajunas -240 (bet $240 to win $100) | Esparza +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -200 | No +140)
[tipico]
UFC 274 Namajunas vs. Esparza picks and predictions
Records: Namajunas (12-4-0) | Esparza (19-6-0)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
It’s tempting to take the big underdog Esparza for a chance to nearly double up, especially since she has a 5-bout win streak. But, Namajunas is the class of the division and she’ll get it done here. However, risking nearly two and a half times your potential return is risky business, so avoid, and look to the distance and method of victory instead.
AVOID.
Over/Under (O/U)
YES (-200): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is a little more expensive than I care to play normally, but it’s a lock. Esparza generally leaves it up to the judges, with very few stoppages over the years.
For Method of Victory, I like NAMAJUNAS BY POINTS (+155). She has three fights going the distance in the past five, all against top-notch foes. Esparza will want to try and take this fight to the canvas, but Namajunas will keep it upright and try to use her reach advantage. Neither will make inroads trying to end it early via their style.
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