In Saturday’s welterweight title fight in the main event, Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman meet at UFC 258 at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the prelims on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. The main card on pay-per-view is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the UFC 258 odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Burns vs. Usman: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 10:39 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Burns +210 (bet $100 to win $210) | Usman -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -200 | Under +165)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -140 | No +115)
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Burns vs. Usman: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Burns 19-3 | Usman 17-1
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
The price on switch-stance Usman (-275) is a little too steep on the 2-way line, although the defending champ is a good bet to retain his strap against the challenger. Still, risking nearly three times your potential return is not a good long-term strategy. Get more specific.
Usman stands two inches taller than Burns with a staggering five-inch reach advantage. That will keep Burns (+210) at arm’s length for most of the fight. Usman owns a 4.50 to 3.15 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, as well as a 53.70 to 46.15 significant strikes-accuracy percentage lead.
Usman had a knockout win over Colby Covington at UFC 245 (Dec. 14, 2019), but five of his past six fights, and nine of the past 11, have ended up going the distance. As such, take USMAN ON POINTS (+135), which is still a pretty good value at plus-money.
If you don’t want to specify a winner, but want action, take YES (-140): THE FIGHT GOES THE DISTANCE.
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Over/Under (O/U)
As mentioned above, Usman rarely gets a finish. OVER 4.5 ROUNDS (-150) is a decent wager, and gives you a little wiggle room in case there is a late finish like Usman had against Covington.
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MMA Junkie:
- UFC 258 predictions
- UFC 258 pre-event facts
- Usman on facing ex-teammate Burns: ‘There’s no friends in there’
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