In a women’s strawweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Ribas meet at UFC 257 at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The early prelims and prelims kick off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.
Rodriguez (12-1-2) is looking for her first victory since Aug. 10, 2019, a unanimous-decision win over Tecia Torres. Rodriguez fought to a draw against Cynthia Calvillo Dec. 7, 2019, and lost a tough split-decision against Carla Esparza July 25, 2020, in her most recent bout. Each of her past five fights have ended up going the distance, and just one of her past nine pro bouts have ended inside the distance.
Ribas (10-1) can handle herself going toe-to-toe with any fighter, but she is especially strong in the ground game. She enters with a 2.28 to 0.38 takedown-average advantage over Rodriguez, and 54.55 to 33.33 takedown-accuracy percentage. She also leads 1.90 to 0.19 in submission average, so needless to say, she’ll be trying to get to the ground and pound as quickly as possible.
Ribas made rather quick work of Paige VanZant last time out, winning via submission in Round 1 at UFC 251 July 11, 2020, sending VanZant off to the Bare Knuckle Fighting Championship and out of UFC.
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Rodriguez vs. Ribas: Betting odds, predictions and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 3:15 p.m. ET.
Ribas (-350) is a heavy favorite on the 2-way line over Rodriguez (+260), but you can’t risk three and a half times your potential return. Let’s get specific instead.
RIBAS BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+240) is a better value, and you’re a winner as long as she doesn’t win on points, or lose obviously. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to single out RIBAS BY SUBMISSION (+310) for a small-unit bet, too, as she is particularly good on the canvas and you have a chance to triple up.
I also think that despite the fact just one of Rodriguez’s past nine bouts have ended inside the distance, NO (+160): “WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?” is a good value, again, based on Ribas’ ground game.
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