In a middleweight bout on Saturday’s preliminary card, Brad Tavares and Antonio Carlos Junior meet at UFC 257 at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The early prelims and prelims kick off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.
Carlos Junior (11-4) enters the octagon looking to use a five-inch reach advantage to keep Tavares (17-7) at arm’s length. That’s important, too, as Tavares has a 3.00 to 1.91 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. ACJ will be looking to get this fight to the mat as quickly as possible, as he owns a staggering 3.70 to 1.03 takedown average, and 44.00 to 27.12 takedown-accuracy percentage.
The Brazilian fighter Carlos Junior hasn’t been able to get to the canvas lately, losing a pair of decision to Ian Heinisch and Uriah Hall, snapping a five-bout win streak (four by submission). In 15 career pro fights, Carlos Junior has won nine times with no losses via submission, so “Cara de Sapato” likes to be on the mat and/or up against the fence looking to break his foes. If he cannot get to the canvas, he is very ordinary.
Tavares is looking to bounce back after getting dropped in Round 1 by Edmen Shahbazyan at UFC 244 Nov. 2, 2019. He suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament after that fight and missed the entire 2020 season while rehabbing the injury. It will be interesting to see where his cardio is after such a long layoff, and if he can withstand a tumble with the boa-like Carlos Junior if the Brazilian should get him down early.
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Carlos Junior vs. Tavares: Betting odds, predictions and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 3:47 p.m. ET.
A.C. JUNIOR (+110) is a nice value as a short dog on the 2-way line. Tavares (-135) enters on a two-bout skid, and he hasn’t had his arm raised since April 14, 2018, against Krzysztof Jotko. While losses to strap holder Israel Adesanya and Shahbazyan aren’t anything to hang your head about, there is concern about Tavares after such a long layoff, especially against a fighter who is top-notch in the ground game.
Taking a shot on A.C. JUNIOR BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+275) can help you nearly triple up, and that’s a good value play. In addition, roll the dice on a two-round block featuring A.C. JUNIOR IN ROUND 2 (+900) and A.C. JUNIOR IN ROUND 3 (+1300). Yes, even if he wins in Round 2 or 3, you lose one end, but you’ll still be well ahead if he pulls off a slight upset inside the distance.
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