In a middleweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Kevin Holland and Jacare Souza meet at UFC 256 at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, followed by the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.
Holland (20-5) heads into this match with a tremendous nine-inch reach advantage, while racking up 4.68 significant strikes landed per minute to just 2.54 for his counterpart. In addition, he is accurate with the punches, posting a 56.55 to 46.87 significant strike-accuracy percentage advantage. However, Souza (26-8) is much better in the takedown game, doubling up Holland 2.46 to 1.21 in takedown average, while also posting a 1.37 to 0.81 submission-average lead.
Holland has won four straight since a tap out loss against Brendan Allen Oct. 18, 2019. He has a pair of KO/TKO wins, and a submission against Charlie Ontiveros last time out on Halloween. In fact, five of Holland’s past eight fights have ended up finishing inside the distance. He is a brawler who likely would prefer to keep the fight upright, although his wrestling has improved tremendously over the years. In 25 career pro bouts, he is 9-0 via KO/TKO, but he also has nine finishes by way of submission, posting seven wins, including two at the UFC level.
Souza enters in a bit of a tailspin with back-to-back setbacks against Jan Blachowicz and Jack Hermansson, both by decision. Souza’s last win was an impressive third-round knockout of Chris Weidman at UFC 230. While Souza is 2-4 over his past six outings, he has fought a who’s who of the difficult middleweight class. He hasn’t really fought any tomato cans since arriving at the UFC.
Place your legal, online UFC 256 sports bets in CO, IN, NJ, TN and WV at BetMGM, the King of Sportsbooks. New customer offer. Terms and conditions apply. Bet now!
Kevin Holland vs. Jacare Souza: Betting odds, predictions and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:54 a.m. ET.
SOUZA (-115) is a good pick to snap his mini-skid and pick up an impressive win over the talented Holland (-105). It’s a coin-flip bout, but Jacare’s takedown ability and work on the canvas will wow the judges more.
Look for this one to end via decision, so YES (+100): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a worthwhile play, as is OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-125) if you want a little more wiggle room.
In addition, play SOUZA ON POINTS (+333) to more than triple up, as it’s hard to envision Jacare with a knockout of Holland.
To watch the early prelims and prelims, sign up for ESPN+ now.
Get some action on UFC 256 by placing a legal sports bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
MMA Junkie:
- UFC 256 predictions
- Burning questions heading into UFC 256
- More UFC/MMA coverage from MMA Junkie
Follow @JoeWilliamsVI on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=2559]