UFC 251 breakdown: Can Max Holloway take title back from Alexander Volkanovski?

MMA Junkie fight analyst Dan Tom takes a closer look at the UFC 251 co-main event between Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski.

Point of interest: Odds and opinions

The oddsmakers and public seem to like the sitting champion, listing Volkanovski -210 and Holloway +175 as of this writing.

Considering the way we saw the first fight play out, I can totally understand the spread here.

Volkanovski fought a near-perfect fight, as he absolutely deserved to win the title in my eyes. And though everyone knows I’m a big Holloway fan whose yet to pick against him, I fear that changes here.

Not only was I not a fan of Holloway jumping right into an immediate rematch without the proper time for adjustments, confidence building, etc., but the more I rewatch their first fight the more I believe that Volkanovski is a bad style match for the Hawaiian.

Although Holloway had success in their first meeting by going to the body, I fear that applying the pressure needed for those types of attacks will bring about the cost some of us feared originally: that Holloway could be playing a dangerous game given the wars and weight fluctuations he’s put his body through.

For that reason, I wouldn’t be surprised to see things get ugly as this goes late, nor would I be shocked if Volkanovski became the first person to stop Holloway with strikes. That said, these two fighters appear to be in better shape than their training situations lead on, as I suspect we see a competitive contest that gets clearer the closer it gets to the scorecards.

Prediction: Volkanovski by decision

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