Point of interest: Odds and opinions

The oddsmakers and public are siding with the more active man, listing Cejudo -210 and Cruz +175 as of this writing.

Despite my official pick and admitted bias toward Cruz, I am actually surprised that the betting spread above doesn’t favor Cejudo more emphatically. From the challenger’s layoff to the champion’s proven gameness and athletic superiority, it’s pretty easy to argue that Cejudo is the deserved favorite to walk away from this fight as the winner.

Not only will Cejudo have speed and power edges over Cruz, but the multi-divisional champion will also have a wrestling prowess that could prove problematic if instituted defensively, thereby limiting the potential adjustments from Cruz. Cody Garbrandt’s stellar takedown defense at UFC 207 was a key part of enabling his counter-punching performance opposite Cruz, though I’m not sure that math – nor the stylistic fit – will apply to Cejudo in quite the same way.

Garbrandt and Cejudo, both technically and at heart, are much different fighters. Cejudo is obviously better when it comes to composure and adjustments, while I’d argue that Garbrandt is still the heavier and more proficient counter puncher (when he can keep his cool).

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Now, does that mean that Cejudo is incapable of catching Cruz? Of course not.

However, outside of his fight with Reis, most of Cejudo’s meaningful counters have come in the form of crashing right hands, which makes me wonder how he intends to catch one of the most elusive fighters in the sport.

Sure, speed and reaction times tend to be the first things to go when dealing with age and injury; I don’t deny that here.

That said, on the flip side of that perspective, if Cruz is able to come in with a rested and healthy body, I still think there’s a lot he can get done that many might not be considering. Lest we not forget, Cruz’s last showing may have been a poor performance that didn’t age kindly, but it was coming off the tail of a busy and injury-ridden calendar year that Cruz elected to fight through.

So, from coming into his last defense with worn and torn feet to the broken hand and damaging headbutt that he suffered in the early rounds, I’d be careful in judging Cruz entirely off of his prior performance. In fact, Cruz – though rightfully losing – was still able to visibly stun and statistically outstrike Garbrandt down the stretch despite absorbing huge shots.

Cruz was also able to drop, stop or visibly damage his three opponents prior to what was just his second career loss, as I warn anyone writing off Cruz’s capabilities or this matchup’s clear size discrepancies. For that reason, I suggest you leave some room to be surprised in regards to Cruz being able to hurt to take down someone like Cejudo, who will be coming off of shoulder surgery.

Thankfully for Cejudo, he doesn’t seem to use his left side much for striking, but both shoulders are essential for wrestling (especially when having to swim for underhooks with the likes of Cruz). I mean, we all keep questioning Cruz, the guy who – time and time again – has successfully overcome the odds of layoffs and the adversity of injuries, yet we forget that Cejudo will be the one who is coming off of the longest layoff of his entire pro career.

OK, 11 months may not be that bad and the champ appears to be in phenomenal shape, but keep in mind that Cejudo closely won the flyweight title off Johnson, who also came off a similar combo of layoff time and shoulder surgery (and that’s not even mentioning the foot issues and obvious lack of offensive grappling from Johnson that night). Now, I don’t mean to discount the accomplishments or the adversities conquered by Cejudo in this alternate take of history, I just thought I’d cite certain facts to help balance the obvious narrative.

Ultimately, in a matchup of durable wrestlers who can scramble, I see this battle coming down to scoring threats.

Cejudo may be the better wrestler on paper, but I don’t see him meaningfully getting Cruz down nor consistently threatening with offense in the same way that the former champ does. In addition, I see Cejudo’s entries and dipping propensities playing into Cruz’s uppercuts and check hooks, as I also wouldn’t be surprised the see the flying knees and kicks that Cruz appears to be polishing via his social media coming into play as well.

Again, I know I’m not winning a popularity contest with this pick, as Cejudo is clearly the more elite athlete and should win this fight more often than not; no arguments there. But when it comes to the unprecedented times and uncertainties of a global pandemic, I find myself leaning more toward the mental outliers than the athletic ones on this fight card. So, if Cejudo doesn’t demonstrate the ability to touch Cruz early and often with consistency, then I’m siding with the longshot in Cruz to use his size to surprise and his skills to score down the stretch of a competitive five-round affair.

Prediction: Cruz by decision

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