Point of interest: Wrestling warfare
With both men coming from wrestling bases, I will be curious to see if either is able to enact his core strengths on the night.
Despite carrying in the higher wrestling credentials on paper, Cejudo has spent a large part of his career in the octagon utilizing it more for defensive purposes.
From a grappling perspective, Cejudo has traditionally done well at stifling his opponents in the clinch with fundamental hand-fighting and controls (outside of his first fight with Demetrious Johnson, of course). And when Cejudo is able to establish any combination of over or underhooks, the 33-year-old is quick to use those opportunities to hit inside trips or other forms of takedowns that chain off the motion he creates.
Cejudo is not beyond changing his level in the open to score, but he does seem to favor chaining his way toward the clinch to get his takedowns – an approach that could be troublesome on paper against an agile mover who’s hard to pin down.
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Parlaying his fancy foot movement into potent offensive and defensive angles, Cruz demonstrates the undeniable – yet often overlooked – connection between boxing and wrestling footwork. Working off the weight he transfers, Cruz can seamlessly change levels and phases to hit his patent knee-tap takedowns mid-motion.
Embodying a more conservative style of catch wrestling, Cruz demonstrates solid positional awareness as soon as the fight hits the floor.
Intelligently transitioning from topside, Cruz will appropriately manage the risk in his ride choices, effectively seeing out the storms of some of the sport’s best scramblers. Whether the 34-year-old is electing to turn his navy ride into a leg-drag variation to land ground strikes or is trying to spiral out his opposition to de-base their defensive actions, Cruz always seems to be a step ahead in transition.
That said, taking down Cejudo, much less controlling him, seems like it’s going to be a big ask in MMA.
Seldom out of position and sporting a stout, athletic frame, Cejudo may end up being the one with the best chances to end up on top in this matchup. Taking a page out of Cruz’s playbook, we’ve seen Cejudo smartly utilize heavy shoulder pressure to kill scrambles from topside when facing the likes of Johnson. And against Reis, Cejudo showed small but impressive riding details that tell me his ground game is continuing to evolve and should not be overlooked.
Nevertheless, it’s still hard to ignore the fact Cruz is also a fighter who has been hard to control in any facet throughout his career, as – that’s right, kids – the UFC color commentator practices what he preaches in regards to underhooks.
Working diligently and staying urgent in bad spots, Cruz hustles hard for underhooks as he attempts to face his opposition before looking for his separations. It’s in these instances where I believe Cruz could have his best chances for success in regards to re-wrestling and scoring by surprise – but Cejudo’s strikes off of the break will also be potent in this space.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
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