Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the former interim champ, listing Ferguson -185 and Gaethje +160 as of this writing.
Despite technically having a shorter camp than Ferguson, Gaethje appears to be in shape as he seems to be putting his personal gym at ONX Labs to good use these days, training with names that range from Neil Magny to Kamaru Usman (which is hard not to like). More importantly, Gaethje is a gameday performer who seems to be the right kind of crazy when it comes to both taking and showing up for this sort of a challenge.
And then there’s Ferguson, who … well, let’s just say that I wouldn’t be surprised if any part of his training regimen has had to change during this time. But in all seriousness, Ferguson, too, has the mental fortitude to work through the adversities that are sure to come with making this event a reality.
A guy who I’ve been a big vocal supporter of in the MMA media space, Ferguson, in my mind, has one of the strongest claims to the lightweight throne, which is why I find the meaning of this matchup somewhat hard to swallow. Ferguson was the first to win the vacant title and never lost it, ultimately putting together one of the most impressive winning streaks (active or not) in any division – and that includes the current lightweight kingpin Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Nevertheless, MMA is seemingly a sport that cares not of what’s deserved nor does it cater to anyone’s storylines. And when you have a high-risk fighter like Ferguson, then I guess you could say that seeing his story crushed by a shifting hook from Gaethje off the break wouldn’t be all that surprising.
Still, I ultimately give Ferguson more leeway than almost any fighter on the roster due to the archetype he embodies. Not only does Ferguson seem to have an unshakable confidence to push forward, but he also has a style that I like to refer to as “presenting.”
Similar to the process of a good magician, the true magic happens when you can successfully stage an environment for your trick to work. This principle also exists in the poker arena, as a poker game can often be won by the better presenter – not necessarily the player with the better hand.
So basically, whether Ferguson is presenting a false target or setting a high pace, he is ultimately fighting with a bigger purpose in mind.
We saw a beautiful glimpse of this when Ferguson fought another short-notice opponent in Lando Vanatta, as Ferguson smartly threatened his fearless foe with a guillotine – knowing it would force a defensive reaction from Vanatta that would open up space between his lats and triceps – allowing for Ferguson to slide into his patent D’arce choke. Given Gaethje’s propensity to sometimes dip in the pocket, he’ll have to mind his manners when fighting in close quarters with Ferguson.
For that reason, I suspect that Gaethje will look to utilize the slightly more patient approach we saw in his last outing in order to help set up his offensive opportunities. But if Gaethje fails to break down the well conditioned Ferguson with leg kicks and body shots, then I have a harder time seeing him land his patent right hand or sneaky left hook up high.
Lest we not forget, Ferguson also represents himself well in the kicking and bodywork departments that, at least on paper, should be more than a two-way street given the defensive stats. Couple that with the fact that Ferguson typically only tends to take his hardest knocks while kicking (a countering spot that Gaethje traditionally/surprisingly chooses to engage very little in), and I seem to like the betting favorites chances a little bit more.
If any short-notice intangibles like cardio concerns start to rear their head and Gaethje goes all-in early, then he will either knock Ferguson stiff or allow him to live up to his moniker of “El Cucuy” by letting Ferguson back into the fight to haunt him with hellacious elbows and unforgiving pressure.
Despite having more time to think about the intangibles of this contest, I still can’t help but have a sneaky suspicion that this ends up resembling a more violent version of Ferguson’s fight with Rafael dos Anjos, as I see Ferguson’s potent jab plaguing the approaches of Gaethje en route to a frustrating fourth-round stoppage by strikes.
Prediction: Ferguson inside the distance