Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are siding with the sitting champion, listing Jones – 420 and Reyes +335 as of this writing.
Despite being admittedly hesitant to pledge full confidence in my pick on the breakdown video attached, I can’t stay that I’m that surprised to see this wide spread considering past betting lines on Jones’ fights. And though further tape study has only solidified my official pick since, I do still stand by my previous proclamations of Reyes being a live dog.
Not only does Reyes have a vaunted left hand that could wreak havoc in the form of either an uppercut or counter cross (especially if Jones over-reaches with his own left cross from a mirrored stance), but the challenger also carries a kicking ability that could replicate some of the early success (in regards to shots landed) that both Thiago Santos and Anthony Smith found in their fights with Jones.
Picking Reyes to find those shots, however, gets a bit trickier when considering that he seldom does the main thing that I believe has traditionally troubled Jones the most — and that’s the ability to consistently pressure and counter off of kicks.
In both victory and defeat, it’s not been uncommon to see Jones gingerly walk out of the cage, as his kick-heavy approach to dissuade pressure seems to perhaps come at a cost to his frame. When fighters like Cormier, Alexander Gustafsson and Thiago Santos (or even Lyoto Machida back at UFC 140, to an extent) have aggressively countered off of Jones’ kicking inclinations, they were able to find some of the best success we’ve seen scored on the champion to date.
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Should Reyes stay composed and show the technical acumen to successfully draw Jones into a kickboxing contest, then we could see the challenger open up some surprising opportunities through either attritive kicks or unexpected explosions. But if Reyes isn’t able to make any meaningful marks early, then I suspect that he will have a hard time both keeping pace with Jones as the fight wears on, as well as confidently earning rounds with quiet leg and bodywork (like he did with Volkan Oezdemir).
Though I do suspect that Reyes’ takedown defense and scrambling ability will be good enough to keep him off the mat for prolonged periods of time, I can’t help but see that factor, as well as Reyes’ speed and southpaw savvy, forcing Jones to fight in a place where he reigns supreme: the clinch.
Reyes does not seem like one who easily raises their flag to the wolves, but the pick is Jones to survive some early scares and pull away in the later rounds en route to a lesson-learning decision win for the perennial pound-for-pound king. But if Jones decides to, once again, try and prove a point by beating someone at their own game – then it could cost him here.
Prediction: Jones by decision