Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the sitting champion, listing Holloway -170 and Volkanovski +150 as of this writing.
Considering the current featherweight run and the overall body of work for Holloway, it’s hard to argue with him being favored to win on the betting lines. However, I will state that Volanovski is a very live underdog given his skill set and potential ceiling.
Even if Volkanovski’s grappling strengths aren’t enough to get things down to the floor, his ever-improving striking is a real x-factor in this contest, and his looming right hand could easily change the trajectory of the fight.
Whether you look at fights with Lamas, Brian Ortega or Dustin Poirier, right hands – in all forms and fashions – have been one of the common culprits for Holloway in regards to strikes landed. Leg kicks, despite making an argument as to why the statistics aren’t as dramatic as they seem on a previous page, are also something that has traditionally landed on the champion – something I suspect Volkanovski will look to score with.
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Volkanovski went 50-for-59 in leg kicks against former featherweight kingpin Jose Aldo, who is one of the most hailed leg kickers in the division’s history. But as impressive as Volkanovski’s performance against Aldo was (and it absolutely was impressive, mind you), Aldo – regardless of whether or not you feel he was at his best that night – is a fighter who typically needs pockets to recoup and space to operate, making the Macedonian a nightmare matchup.
Whereas now, Volanovski is tasked with imposing his strengths on one of the few fighters who can match his pace and pressure. And it’s not that I don’t think Volkanovski isn’t skillful or athletic enough to hold Holloway to the fire for five rounds, because I believe that he is; I just don’t like the idea of Holloway being anyone’s first taste of a potential five-round fight.
Volanovksi has made it to Round 4 twice outside of the octagon, but has never fought or been scheduled to fight five rounds in the UFC, which makes it hard to be confident he can change gears when he needs to against one of the best five-round fighters in the sport today.
Although I could totally see the chickens coming home to roost for Holloway in the form of an overhand right or spinning elbow knockout given the wars he’s been in, it’s ultimately hard not to side with the Hawaiian champion to keep things at his preferred range as he pulls away down the stretch of what I believe will be a competitive 25-minute affair.
Prediction: Holloway by decision