UFC 245 breakdown: Does Germaine de Randamie have what it takes to upset Amanda Nunes?

MMA Junkie fight analyst Dan Tom takes a closer look at the UFC 245 title fight between Amanda Nunes and Germaine de Randamie.

Point of interest: Return of the mat?

Amanda Nunes vs. Valentina Shevchenko

Considering how their first fight went, one can’t help but wonder if Nunes will look to take this to the ground to exploit a grappling edge once again.

Nunes, who has a background in judo, also has improved her wrestling ability since working with American Top Team. Whether she is shooting in the open or going for takedowns from the clinch, Nunes will be a scoring threat any time these two tie up in close quarters.

However, unless Nunes elects a level-changing shot or kick-catch counter, then the Brazilian champion will likely have to enter the clinch with de Randamie – which is where things could get even more interesting considering the challenger’s muay Thai aptitude.

Instead of connecting her hands in a traditional Thai plum around the back of her opponent’s head, de Randamie will typically utilize a palm-to-palm grip variation off the over-under position, connecting her hands high around the back of her opposition’s head and neck. Not only does this allow de Randamie to steer her counterpart, but it also allows her to strike them with impunity with knees, something we saw on full display in her fight with Julie Kedzie.

That said, it’s still hard to ignore the lack of layers to de Randamie’s wrestling defense and fundamentals, which – to me – spells trouble anytime she ties up in the open or against the fence without showing immediate answers or urgency.

Should Nunes successfully get this fight grounded, then it’s hard not to see her getting to/having carte blanche from topside. The sitting champ has a legitimate Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt to go along with her brown belt in judo and has proven to be a nightmare whenever working from top position, showing both brutal ground striking and submission savvy.
Given that de Randamie hasn’t really faced or encountered in-fight grappling threats since she last met Nunes, it really is difficult to tell exactly how much technical rebuttal she will have if faced with similar grappling scenarios again.

Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction

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