The Troy Trojans and Ole Miss Rebels open their 2022 seasons Saturday in Oxford at 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Troy vs. Ole Miss odds, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Ole Miss, which is No. 24 in the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports, comes into this game with a new starter at QB and a largely new roster with self-proclaimed “Portal King” Lane Kiffin at coach. With QB Matt Corral off to the NFL, incoming QB Jaxson Dart will look to get the Rebels off to a quick start, something Ole Miss must accomplish in the SEC West Division with most of its most challenging games coming later in the season.
While Ole Miss looks to return to a big bowl game – it lost to Baylor in the Jan. 1 Sugar Bowl – Troy looks to get back above .500 after a 5-7 season in which coach Chip Lindsey was fired with 1 game left. New coach Jon Sumrall will look to rejuvenate a team which has a proud tradition in the Sun Belt Conference and hopes to compete for the league title this season.
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Troy at Ole Miss odds
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:43 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Troy +1000 (bet $100 to win $1,000) | Ole Miss -1800 (bet $1,800 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Troy +20.5 (-103) | Ole Miss -20.5 (-117)
- Over/Under (O/U): 56.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Troy at Ole Miss picks and predictions
Prediction
Ole Miss 45 Troy 21
Money line
PASS.
Like with all huge lines like this, the juice is not worth the squeeze in taking the money line on these games. Not only would it be bad to wager $1,800 to win $100, but in a case line Bowling Green vs. Minnesota last season, it would feel even worse to pick a guaranteed winner at -15000 and end up losing – Bowling Green (+2500) upset Minnesota (-15000) last season 14-10 as a 31-point underdog.
It’s a no-win situation. So do not do it.
Against the spread
TAKE OLE MISS -20.5 (-117).
Kiffin has never met a team he didn’t want to run the score up against. The same will be said for this game against an overwhelmed Trojans team, which comes into this game hoping to be able to score, collect its money and avoid injury.
If this number were to cross over the 21-point threshold, I might be a little hesitant, but I would still play it.
Over/Under
OVER 56.5 (-112) is my FAVORITE BET here.
Even without Corral at QB, Kiffin and the Ole Miss coaching staff will continue to use the air raid offense. The defense in Troy is average at best and even with a new starting QB in Dart, the Rebels are talented enough to move up and down the field.
It could get ugly early leading to a lot of backups playing late in the game. With the deficiencies Ole Miss has on defense, this could be the time Troy gets its points to put the game OVER the 56.5 number.
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