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The 49ers are rapidly coming to a crossroads with quarterback Trey Lance where they either commit to him long-term, or move on. A path to the latter is much easier to chart than one toward the former.
This isn’t any fault of Lance’s. He hurt his finger during the preseason finale his rookie year, and then lost virtually his entire second season to an ankle injury in Week 2. Now he enters Year 3 and the writing is starting to show itself on the wall.
Let’s first lay out the timeline the 49ers are working with on Lance.
They have him under contract through the 2024 season, with a club option available for the 2025 campaign. A decision on that club option will have to come down after the 2024 draft. The fifth-year option is fully-guaranteed and will eclipse $20 million.
In order for the 49ers to pick up that option on Lance he would need to play well and in enough games in 2023 to convince San Francisco that he’s worth the cost of that fifth year.
That’s where Brock Purdy enters the equation. His performance as a rookie in 2022 was impressive enough that the team wants to move forward with him as the starter once he’s healthy in 2023. Barring a dramatic meltdown or another injury, Purdy will likely be the player the team rides with into the near future, eliminating any opportunity for Lance to get on the field.
Assuming Purdy is healthy for 2023, that leaves Lance and the 49ers in the same spot going into 2024 – the final year of his rookie contract. At that point the team may aim to get a pick for Lance in a trade instead of letting him walk in free agency. Or they may decide to let him play out his rookie deal because they believe in his talent and want him around in the event of an injury at QB.
Either way, there appear to be two paths for Lance that keep him with the 49ers long-term.
First, he could just light it up in camp this year and overwhelm everyone, forcing the coaching staff to insert him as the starter where he becomes the player they were hoping he’d become when they took him No. 3 overall in the 2021 draft. That doesn’t feel super likely though given the ups and downs we’ve seen from him in his limited playing time. There’s growth that needs to happen, but it may not happen until he gets real playing time in NFL games.
The other way is if Purdy has some sort of setback or struggles in his return from offseason surgery on his throwing elbow. That’s certainly on the table which would launch a sizable wrench into the entire plan. In that case Lance (who would need to beat out Sam Darnold) may get nearly a full season to play and prove that he’s the player the 49ers wanted.
In a world where Purdy is healthy and playing well though, the end of Lance’s tenure in San Francisco feels inevitable. Time is running out on his contract and the opportunities for Lance to prove himself just aren’t going to be there. Things can change quickly in the NFL, so nothing is set in stone, but it’s hard to ignore the writing on the wall that’s becoming so clear.
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