Trevor Lawrence may have been a generational prospect coming out of the draft, but Pro Football Focus doesn’t seem to think that his raw talent will translate to a tremendous amount of Year 1 success. In its rankings of all 32 starting quarterbacks heading into the 2021 season, Lawrence ranks in the bottom half of league starters, coming in at No. 21.
Lawrence was a three-year starter at Clemson, leading them to a 34-2 record, three straight College Football Playoff appearances and one National Championship trophy. He has been the best player at every level of football he has played. The question is whether he will be able to continue that trend in the NFL.
Lawrence is the only quarterback in the PFF College era to earn an overall grade of 90.0 as a true freshman — and he repeated that the last two seasons. His skill set should fit perfectly in the Urban Meyer/ Darrell Bevell offense, which will be designed to help the young QB reach his NFL potential. Bevell used a lot of play-action pass in Detroit — these concepts are easy for a young quarterback to read out with pure progressions and reliable check downs.
Though PFF thinks Lawrence will be a good fit in Urban Meyer’s offense, it seems those changes aren’t expected to be felt right away. In these rankings, Lawrence falls just behind a pair of quarterbacks who have struggled (albeit in very different circumstances) in Washington’s Ryan Fitzpatrick and New York’s Daniel Jones.
Likewise, however, he ranks just ahead of a pair of quarterbacks who have had significant past success in San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo and Indianapolis’ Carson Wentz. He’s also the highest-ranked rookie quarterback projected to start Day 1.
A good parallel for Lawrence in terms of expectations is Andrew Luck. Both were considered generational talents and joined teams that were abysmal the prior year. Luck finished in the top-10 in yards as a rookie (though his 23 to 18 touchdown-to-interception ratio left much to be desired) and led the Colts to a playoff berth.
The playoff berth may be a bit of a stretch for Jacksonville, but it seems reasonable to hope for similar production from Lawrence, especially as a part of an offensive unit that flashed in 2020 and made some significant upgrades this offseason.