There is a growing sentiment in the Lions fan base that it’s time for the team to move on from quarterback Matthew Stafford. After his uninspiring performance in the Week 9 loss to the Vikings and the long-term inability to ever get over the proverbial hump in Detroit, it’s an understandable position.
If the Lions do choose to move on from Stafford after the 2020 season ends, it might not be so easy to have a clean break.
Stafford is under contract through the 2022 season. Technically it’s through 2023 but that last year is a voidable window dressing to spread out the cap hit from his five-year, $135 million extension he signed in 2017.
The most recent restructure added to his cap figure for 2021. Stafford now counts $33 million between salary and bonus proration. It also jacked up Stafford’s cap figure for 2022 by $3 million, to $26 million.
No matter how much anyone dislikes Stafford or thinks he needs to go, the Lions are not eating $59 million in cap room over two years. That would represent a paralyzing move that would destroy any (hypothetical) new regime’s ability to make needed changes across the rest of the roster.
Trading Stafford is also unlikely, but it’s at least a realistic possibility. A trade, depending on the date, would remove the salary portion of Stafford’s cap hit as well as his roster and workout bonuses, which totals $20 million in 2021 and $23 million in 2022. A deal before June 1st would still cost the Lions $19 million in a cap hit for 2021, per Over The Cap.
But losing $19 million is at least conceivable, whereas swallowing $33 million simply is not. Finding a trade partner, on the other hand…
Any team trading for Stafford will have to have the cap room to onboard his salary and the associated bonuses. They will also have to be willing to part with significant draft and/or personnel assets to make it happen. In a season with an uncertain salary cap due to the COVID-19 pandemic and loss of revenues, that’s asking a lot.
There are also two exceptional QB prospects at the top of the draft class in Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields. North Dakota State’s Trey Lance and BYU’s Zach Wilson also project as potential top-10 QBs and they have age and longer-term financial stability on their sides.
Read as: No QB-needy team picking in the top 10 in its right mind is giving away that opportunity to acquire Stafford.
Put the shoe on the other foot for a minute and (gulp) pretend you’re a fan of the Washington Football Team. They’ll be picking above the Lions–barring an unexpected hot streak from the 2-6 team on its third-string QB. Would you want your team to bypass taking Fields to trade for a 33-year-old with an injury history who has never won a playoff game? Yeah, me neither.
Don’t expect there to be a clamoring for his services. The same reason so many fans are ready to move on from Stafford — the age, the injuries, the years of playoff futility, the inexplicable cold streaks within games — are valid reasons why other teams won’t be all that excited about giving up a lot to acquire him, in a buyer’s market, no less.
The only real chance is for a mid-level team that feels like they are a QB upgrade away from competing for multiple playoff wins to take a shine to Stafford. That would be the Colts if Rivers retires, Steelers if Roethlisberger retires, Patriots (maybe), Browns (maybe) or 49ers (who would have to send Garoppolo away to make it work). The Giants and Cowboys probably merit mention, though at this point I don’t buy either of them having interest. The Bears and Vikings might also fit but trading viable starting QBs within a division is akin to divorcing a spouse only to have them marry your more successful sibling a week later.
In short, don’t expect a trade. That doesn’t mean one will not happen, but it’s a lot more complicated than just screaming “trade Stafford” at the sports radio call screener.
My take: I would not get rid of Stafford but if another team calls, I’m at least listening to the offer. I respect the fans who are ready for a break. I’m not there yet, in part because I know how difficult it is to find a capable QB and I don’t trust the current regime to find one if they let Stafford go.
I do believe having Stafford in place is attractive for any new head coach, too. Keeping him doesn’t preclude Detroit from drafting his potential successor, a la Alex Smith and Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City, and I’m ready to explore that option, too. I expect Matthew Stafford to be the starting QB for the Detroit Lions in 2021 no matter who is in charge of the team.