8. New England Patriots
Current cap space: $45,565,319
Primary free agents: QB Tom Brady, S Devin McCourty, OG Joe Thuney, LB Kyle Van Noy, OT Marshall Newhouse, WR Phillip Dorsett, LB Jamie Collins
Well, that is a weird name to see up top. The re-signing of Tom Brady, which has been relatively automatic since his first contract extension in 2002, comes into question now. Brady played the 2019 season benefiting from the best defense in his pro career, but he was stuck with the least-impressive receiving weapons he’s had since the Reche Caldwell era. Something has to change. New England’s offense gave the defense no margin for error, nor did it hide Brady’s own limitations at age 42. Brady may want to go to a team where he can throw the ball to top-level receivers; he doesn’t have time for a rebuild. Although, with most of that insanely good defense still under contract, perhaps it’s just a matter of signing a couple of free-agent receivers, re-thinking the offensive line without longtime coach Dante Scarnecchia (a major loss no matter how you look at it) and pointing Brady at the big play once again. Without him, Bill Belichick would face the biggest challenge of his coaching career. No matter what happens with Brady, the Patriots need better weapons. Losing him would complicate things in all kinds of ways.
7. Tennessee Titans
Current cap space: $50,708,536
Primary free agents: RB Derrick Henry, QB Ryan Tannehill, CB Logan Ryan, RT Jack Conklin, EDGE Kamalei Correa
The Titans have a couple really interesting decisions to make. Do they think 2019 rushing champ Derrick Henry is worth top running back money, or is he fungible? There’s an argument to give him a Todd Gurley-level contract … until you play the Gurley situation out. Gurley may not even be on the Rams’ roster in 2020, and the Cardinals are looking to release David Johnson. That would mean two of the top four running back contracts on the move. The Titans’ brain trust must also decide if Ryan Tannehill’s season was a precursor or an outlier. Given Tannehill’s obvious chemistry with offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, that could be an easier call. Another transition for Mike Vrabel’s team is the retirement of defensive coordinator Dean Pees, whose masterful coverage designs made Tennessee’s defense as good as it could possibly be. That’s a lot of moving parts for a team on the rise after four consecutive 9-7 seasons.
6. Seattle Seahawks
Current cap space: $50,775,222
Primary free agents: DE Jadeveon Clowney, DE Ezekiel Ansah, DT Jarran Reed, OG Mike Iupati, OT Germain Ifedi, C Joey Hunt, RB Marshawn Lynch
During Super Bowl week, Russell Wilson was asked by NBC Sports’ Chris Simms why the Seahawks’ passing game isn’t called more consistently as it is in hurry-up situations, and used in a multiple sense. His answer was fascinating.
Russ is just as frustrated as we are with the situation of the Seahawks offense.
He uses the Chiefs and Andy Reid as an example of how he wants to do things.
Says they will try to figure it out. Hopefully he gets the coaching staff to change things up. One can only hope. pic.twitter.com/qQDovEGeOB— Vountee – Seattle Dragon longtime fan (@vountee) February 2, 2020
“I think that’s what we’ve got to figure out. … We’re trying to capture that early on,” Wilson said. “We’ve always been really good at two-minute … those up-tempo moments. I really kind of know how I want to get after [the defense] in those moments, and guys just make plays in those moments. The freedom of going after it and scoring as many points … that’s kind of what the Chiefs do. They do a really good job of that — Andy Reid and [Patrick Mahomes]. They do a really good job of making plays, and they score more points than everybody else.”
Invoking the Chiefs’ offense when Wilson works with a head coach in Pete Carroll whose philosophies regarding ball control and offensive balance are well known? Highly interesting, to say the least. Wilson has all the talent required to run such an attack, but will his coaches let him? Given the current state of Seattle’s pass defense, Carroll should bend here and let Wilson score a few more touchdowns to make up for the ones the Legion of Whom are capable of allowing.
5. Green Bay Packers
Current cap space: $23,700,042
Primary free agents: OT Bryan Bulaga, LB Blake Martinez, CB Tramon Williams, K Mason Crosby, WR Geronimo Allison, OLB Kyler Fackrell
It took a while for Aaron Rodgers, who was accustomed to improvising in Mike McCarthy’s schematically limited passing game, to take to the weight of first-year head coach Matt LaFleur’s structured, balanced attack. The scheme wasn’t as explosive, but Rodgers himself hadn’t been as explosive as he was at his peak, when he performed as one of the most gifted passers in NFL history. Still, he completed 62% of his passes this past season for 4,002 yards, 26 touchdowns and just four interceptions with a limited cadre of weapons (basically Davante Adams and the Pips). Green Bay’s running backs flourished, a redefined defense got hot all the way until it was dismembered by the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game, and the Packers will go into 2020 as one of the most competitive and complete teams in the NFL. If LaFleur can bring the zing back to Rodgers’ game, that might be all it takes for a Super Bowl berth.
4. New Orleans Saints
Current cap space: $9,398,192
Primary free agents: QB Drew Brees, QB Teddy Bridgewater, LB A.J. Klein, CB Eli Apple, CB P.J. Williams, S Vonn Bell, OG Andrus Peat
There’s nothing like having two of your three quarterbacks on the line in free agency when the new league year begins. Drew Brees and Sean Payton have worked together since 2006, and as unimaginable as it is for the two to be working apart in 2020 and beyond, it’s not impossible. Payton has said the Saints want Brees back, but Payton also recently pointed to a limited downfield attack. Brees has said that if Payton wants to call more plays for Taysom Hill, whom the team seems to believe is the future at quarterback for the Saints, he’s cool with that. It’s a pretty gutsy statement for the team to take the reins from a future first-ballot Hall of Famer and hand them to a guy who’s completed seven of 15 passes with no touchdowns and one interception in his NFL career (including the postseason). Maybe it’s just leverage, as Brees is still on the fence as to whether he’ll come back in 2020. That’s a whole lot of questions at the most important position for a team credibly seen as a Super Bowl contender once the new season begins.
3. San Francisco 49ers
Current cap space: $13,858,285
Primary free agents: DE Arik Armstead, S Jimmie Ward, WR Emmanuel Sanders, C Ben Garland
San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan still confidently carries no regrets for his play-calling in Super Bowl LIV, but that doesn’t mean those questions are going away. Shanahan also says that he has complete confidence in quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, which is going to be a tough sell. The 49ers gave Garoppolo a five-year, $137.5 million contract in 2018, and though it was front-loaded to absorb a $37 million cap hit in the first year, 2020 presents the 49ers with a $26.6 million hit versus a $4.2 million dead cap balance should the team decide to move on. So, we’re about to find out how legitimate Shanahan’s belief really is. Should Garoppolo progress as the 49ers hope he will, the franchise retains an incredible running game, confident receivers and a top-two defense. Getting back to the Super Bowl and actually winning it is going to be on Garoppolo’s shoulders at some point. We don’t yet know if that is a good thing for the 49ers.
2. Baltimore Ravens
Current cap space: $27,750,854
Primary free agents: CB Jimmy Smith, DT Michael Pierce, LB Patrick Onwuasor, WR Seth Roberts
There are currently two Lamar Jacksons, and thus, two Baltimore Ravens teams. There’s the regular-season Lamar Jackson who, in 2019, became the second unanimous NFL MVP in history (matching Tom Brady in 2010) with a league-leading 39 touchdown passes, and a record-breaking 1,206 rushing yards for a quarterback. There’s also the postseason Lamar Jackson who, in two career games (both losses) has completed 51.1% of his passes, thrown three touchdown passes and three interceptions, taken 11 sacks and looked overwhelmed against the defenses of the Chargers (in the 2018 postseason) and the Titans (in the 2019 postseason), when he was shown new looks.
The regular-season Ravens became the first team in 17 years to lead the league in both rushing and passing DVOA. They absolutely crushed the rest of the league in Total DVOA, Football Outsiders’ primary opponent-adjusted efficiency metric on both offense and defense. But until postseason Lamar catches up to regular-season Lamar, it’s going to matter less and less — and the questions will increase. The Ravens have set things up to go as their quarterback goes. Right now, that’s a bit of a mixed blessing.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Current cap space: $16,164,494
Primary free agents: DL Chris Jones, LB Reggie Ragland, CB Bashaud Breeland, DB Kendall Fuller, DE Terrell Suggs, OL Stefen Wisniewski
The Chiefs are coming off a Super Bowl win in which they’ll be able to keep the offense together, and the only guy on the defensive side of the ball who’s about to get a monster check is defensive lineman Chris Jones — whom I argued should have been the Most Valuable Player of Super Bowl LIV. But there’s no reason to think, as long as everyone stays healthy, the Chiefs won’t be in the hunt to repeat. Patrick Mahomes struggled through knee and hand injuries during the season and looked relatively mortal for a while — then he turned it all on at the right time. His postseason stats: 72 completions in 112 attempts for 901 yards, 10 touchdowns and two interceptions, plus 24 rushing attempts for 135 yards and two more touchdowns — including one of the better touchdown runs in postseason history — and it tells that side of the story.
Factor in a defense that improved graphically over the second half of the season under coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, and these guys aren’t going anywhere but right back up to the top. Andy Reid had to wait a long time for his first Lombardi Trophy; it might only be about 365 days until he gets his second.
Touchdown Wire editor Doug Farrar previously covered football for Yahoo! Sports, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, the Washington Post, and Football Outsiders. His first book, “The Genius of Desperation,” a schematic history of professional football, was published by Triumph Books in 2018 and won the Professional Football Researchers Association’s Nelson Ross Award for “Outstanding recent achievement in pro football research and historiography.”