24. New York Giants
Current cap space: $61,887,217
Primary free agents: DL Leonard Williams, EDGE Markus Golden, RT Mike Remmers
Joe who? That was certainly the question on most minds when, after firing Pat Shurmur, the Giants went with former Patriots special teams coordinator and wide receivers coach Joe Judge as their head coach, based in part on the high recommendation of a former Giants defensive coordinator: some guy named Bill Belichick. If Judge is indeed the guy, he’ll have to prove it with a roster that has holes all over it, a general manager in Dave Gettleman who is as vocal as he is impulsive and old school, an ownership group which is now perceived to have jumped the shark, and the ability to handle all this in the media capital of the world. In the end, it might make coaching punts for Belichick look pretty appealing. But Judge does have a star running back in Saquon Barkley and a quarterback with potential in Daniel Jones, which gives him a couple of good starting points. If Gettleman can do a half-decent job of buying the groceries and staying out of his own way, the Giants might actually manage their first winning record since 2016.
23. Cleveland Browns
Current cap space: $49,574,690
Primary free agents: LB Joe Schobert, LT Greg Robinson, S Damarious Randall
Last season, Cleveland promoted former offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens to head coach, a move that proved disastrous as the uber-talented but hyper-undisciplined Browns finished 6-10 and underperformed in every possible way. Now, they’ve replaced Kitchens with former Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski, a respected coach in the league who has his work cut out for him. Not only will he have to manage all kinds of egos and pull that locker room together, he’ll also have to align the Browns’ offense with the two things the Vikings’ offense were known for last season — boot-action success and a highly effective zone running game. That those two things were actually hallmarks of Vikings assistant head coach Gary Kubiak, and have been for years … well, let’s just say it wouldn’t be out of character for the Browns to hire the wrong guy.
22. Las Vegas Raiders
Current cap space: $54,918,096
Primary free agents: S Karl Joseph, OG Richie Incognito, EDGE Benson Mayowa
The Raiders have a new home in Las Vegas, but does that lead to new hope for a team that is 11-21 in Jon Gruden’s two years back with the franchise? Quarterback Derek Carr finished the 2019 season with career bests in completion percentage (70.4%), passing yards (4,054), yards per attempt (7.9) and passer rating (100.8). Carr also finished sixth in Football Outsiders’ cumulative opponent-adjusted efficiency metrics for quarterbacks last season. But there doesn’t seem to be a sure-thing status regarding Gruden’s feelings about Carr, and that’s not the only issue here. The Raiders’ secondary combined for 18 touchdowns allowed, but just six interceptions in 2019. The Raiders finished 24th in the league in both points scored and points allowed, and although Gruden and general manager Mike Mayock came through with an absolutely fantastic rookie class in 2019, there’s still work to be done. Committing to a quarterback would help.
21. Los Angeles Rams
Current cap space: $14,716,619
Primary free agents: EDGE Dante Fowler Jr., OT Andrew Whitworth, DL Michael Brockers, LB Cory Littleton, K Greg Zuerlein
The Rams’ all-in, short-term, win-now philosophy almost bore the best fruit at the end of the 2018 season, if only Sean McVay’s team could have beaten the Patriots in Super Bowl LIII. After that didn’t happen, a whole lot of other things didn’t happen in 2019. First of all, the Rams didn’t make the playoffs, finishing with a 9-7 record after a 13-3 mark the year before. Jared Goff didn’t develop as a quarterback — in fact, he regressed in several areas as opposing defenses seemed to figure him out. A cautious approach to Goff’s future didn’t happen; last September, the Rams gave Goff a four-year, $134 million contract that included an NFL-record $110 million in guarantees. That’s a major commitment to a quarterback who has proven very little regarding his ability to succeed outside of McVay’s structure.
Speaking of that structure, as much as teams figured Goff out, they also seemed to find McVay’s offense, with its tight formations and motion concepts, less intimidating than before. The running game was less effective, as was the defense. That led to the firing of defensive coordinator Wade Philips and rumors that the Rams are interested in trading franchise back Todd Gurley. This is now a team that will struggle to improve outside of the draft because it has massive cap commitments to Goff, Gurley, defensive lineman Aaron Donald and receiver Brandin Cooks. They also have to pay cornerback Jalen Ramsey, whom they acquired from the Jaguars in exchange for 2020 and 2021 first-round picks, and he will require a mammoth deal in the near future.
That is the problem with a win-now philosophy. Eventually, all the bills come due at the same time — especially when several of your financial commitments are questionable at best.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current cap space: $79,894,844
Primary free agents: QB Jameis Winston, EDGE Shaquil Barrett, RT Demar Dotson, WR Breshad Perriman, DL Ndamukong Suh, DE Jason Pierre-Paul, OLB Carl Nassib, RB Peyton Barber
Bucs head coach Bruce Arians has always employed a “no risk-it, no biscuit” philosophy, which is to say that he wants his quarterbacks to turn it loose in the vertical game with big plays as the result. Problem with Jameis Winston is, the big plays happen too often for the other team. In 2019, Winston infamously became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in the same season. Per the Elias Sports Bureau, opponents scored a league-high 112 points off those picks, and that included seven pick-sixes, the most for any quarterback in a single season in NFL history.
What to do now that Winston is a free agent? Tampa Bay has an amazing corps of receivers and a vastly improved defense under coordinator Todd Bowles, but if Winston keeps hurling biscuits all over the field, none of that will matter. Arians has defended his quarterback to a point, insisting that not all the interceptions were Winston’s fault — but as the season wore on, he also bemoaned the regression. Will Arians take another shot on the guy who threw for 5,109 yards, the eighth-highest single-season total ever, or go after a quarterback who can risk it with fewer ancillary headaches?
19. Atlanta Falcons
Current cap space: $5,292,104
Primary free agents: EDGE Vic Beasley, DE Adrian Clayborn, LB De’Vondre Campbell, CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson, CB Jamar Taylor, P Matt Bosher
Falcons head coach Dan Quinn escaped the guillotine after the 2019 season despite a 1-7 start because he proved flexible enough to cede coaching responsibilities to others. He moved Raheem Morris from wide receivers to secondary and gave linebackers coach Jeff Ulbrich a bigger piece of the pie. The result? A 6-2 second half of the season, and a defense that improved from 29th to 10th in Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted defensive metrics.
“There aren’t many guys that could’ve come into the room as a head football coach this year in a 1-7 setting and reset the tone — just literally reset the tone,” Falcons president Rich McKay said of Quinn in a statement. “Took some ownership of why we were at 1-7 on himself, beyond just pointing at the players and saying it’s on you. He turned the mirror towards himself and he just reset the mindset. And that’s who he is.”
That is indeed who Quinn is. With Morris now installed as defensive coordinator, perhaps the Falcons can improve on two consecutive 7-9 seasons and live up to their overall potential. If not, Quinn and general manager Thomas Dimitroff are probably out the door.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers
Current cap space: $1,430,975
Primary free agents: DL Javon Hargrave, OLB Bud Dupree
In 2019, Ben Roethlisberger managed to play just six quarters of football before losing the rest of the season to an elbow injury. That left the offense in the hands of quarterbacks Mason Rudolph and Devlin “Duck” Hodges. That didn’t go too well, as the Steelers finished 30th in passing DVOA, 30th in rushing DVOA and dead last in offensive DVOA and weighted offensive DVOA, which gives more credibility to results late in the season. So Big Ben’s return is a must if the Steelers are to do anything in the 2020 postseason; Mike Tomlin deserved a few Coach of the Year votes for getting that team to 8-8 with what it had. With Roethlisberger back under center, what the Steelers have is a defense that improved exponentially, especially after acquiring Minkah Fitzpatrick from the Dolphins. Pittsburgh’s coaching staff switched Fitzpatrick from Swiss Army Knife to deep safety, and everything locked into place. This is a team that can do a lot of damage in the AFC with an actual quarterback.
17. Los Angeles Chargers
Current cap space: $48,707,802
Primary free agents: QB Philip Rivers, RB Melvin Gordon, TE Hunter Henry, S Adrian Phillips
The Chargers seem prepared to move on without quarterback Philip Rivers, the most prominent free agent on their list when the new league year turns over, and the team’s starting quarterback since 2006. It will make a potential free agency of veteran quarterbacks even more interesting, though Rivers’ turnover rate (20 interceptions last season, and several in crucial moments) is cause for concern. For the Chargers, who finished with a league-worst minus-17 turnover differential and were 2-9 in one-possession games, the hope is that luck will turn in their favor in 2020. Without Rivers, the team’s quarterback depth chart consists of Tyrod Taylor and Easton Stick, so if the Rivers era is over, general manager Tom Telesco and head coach Anthony Lynn had better be ready to pin their hopes on the right replacement.