24. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams team that lost Super Bowl LIII to the Patriots at the end of the 2018 season seems very much in the rear-view mirror. Running back Todd Gurley and receiver Brandin Cooks are off to other teams, leaving catastrophic cap hits in their wake. Jared Goff and Aaron Donald combine for 2020 cap hits of more than $50 million, and while Donald has proven unquestionably that he’s worth whatever you pay him, Goff has not. Add in the lack of high draft picks as an inevitable price of the team’s win-now philosophy a couple years back, and the reckoning begins now. There’s still enough talent on the roster and in the coaching staff to make the Rams league-average if everything breaks right, but if it doesn’t, last season’s 9-7 record may seem like a relatively pleasant memory.
23. Atlanta Falcons
2019 was a tale of two seasons for Dan Quinn’s Falcons, who started 1-7 as their defense fell apart. The rebound to a final record of 7-9 had a lot to do with the coaching acumen of assistant head coach & secondary coach Raheem Morris, who was given more responsibility as the season wore on, and eventually was given the defensive coordinator role for 2020 and beyond. Atlanta went from 28th to 17th in Defensive DVOA with Morris more involved, and when you add in cornerback A.J. Terrell and defensive lineman Marlon Davidson, the Falcons’ first two draft picks, there could be a defensive resurgence that brings the team back into contention.
22. Houston Texans
Speaking of former Belichick assistants… well, there’s whatever the heck Texans head coach and ostensible general manager Bill O’Brien has done to his roster in the last year or so. Those #FreeDeshaun hashtags that popped up when O’Brien traded DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals aren’t going away anytime soon, and while Watson remains an estimable talent, there’s only so much he can do with an offense leaking talent. Running back David Johnson, who came over in the Hopkins trade, would be a valuable addition if this was 2016, which it isn’t. The receiver trio of Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, and Kenny Stills is decent enough, and Will Fuller will add a deep threat when healthy. But the defense has questions from the front to the secondary, and with O’Brien in charge, it’s easy to see a possible perch off the cliff after the Texans’ disastrous faceplant against the Chiefs in the 2019 playoffs.
21. Denver Broncos
If Drew Lock falls short in his first season as Denver’s starting quarterback, it won’t be for lack of targets. Last season, Courtland Sutton proved to be a great high-volume receiver, and John Elway added Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy, the best route-runner in this draft class, and Penn State’s KJ Hamler, who could be an estimable slot target. Tight end Noah Fant can also contribute to what has become one of the league’s best young receiver groups — at least on paper. Now, it’s up to Lock to curtail his rogue tendencies, add a reliable short and intermediate passing game to his deep-ball heroics, and perhaps the Broncos can have their first above-average quarterback since Peyton Manning retired.
20. Cleveland Browns
From the “Here We Go Again” Department: The Browns are loaded enough to make a serious claim for contention in the AFC! Well, the same could have been said in 2019, and it didn’t work out to the tune of a 6-10 record after the team brought up so much hope with a strong finish in 2018. New head coach Kevin Stefanski brings a high play-action offense from his days in Minnesota, which should help Baker Mayfield. Nick Chubb might just be the best running back in football, and the combination of Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, and tight ends Austin Hooper and David Njoku? That’s enough talent to put any defense on edge. Factor in an above-average defense with two great cornerbacks in Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams, not to mention second-round safety Grant Delpit from LSU, and if the Browns can’t compete under Stefanski, one has to wonder what’s in the waters of the Cuyahoga River.
19. Chicago Bears
Saying that your football team has everything required to compete except for a quarterback you can trust is like saying that your primed Indy car has everything required to win races except an engine. That’s exactly where the Bears are with Mitchell Trubisky, which is why they (checks notes) acquired Nick Foles from the Jaguars for a fourth-round pick in March. So, perhaps head coach Matt Nagy can Frankenstein something together from two iffy quarterbacks? Who knows. If someone is able to rise out of that “competition,” there’s still a great defense, David Montgomery is a running back on the rise, and Lord knows Allen Robinson deserves better quarterbacks than he’s had through his career with the Bears and Jaguars. If not, expect a middling result, and perhaps the end of what might have been a contending window sacrificed at the altar of mis-evaluation at the game’s most important position.
18. Las Vegas Raiders
Jon Gruden is entering his third year back in the league as a head coach, and the former host of “Gruden’s QB Camp” may finally have the perfect set of targets for Derek Carr, his feelings about Carr on a long-term basis notwithstanding. Grabbing Alabama speed receiver Henry Ruggs III in the first round to add to Tyrell Williams, Hunter Renfew, and prolific tight end Darren Waller makes this the most complete passing game Gruden’s had in a long time. But if the Raiders are to compile a winning record for the first time in Gruden’s new tenure, it’s the defense — fortified wisely by the draft and free agency over the last two years by general manager Mike Mayock — that will finally have to turn a dividend.
17. New England Patriots
It’s been one of the NFL’s primary questions over the last two decades: Who’s really responsible for the Patriots’ radical success: Bill Belichick or Tom Brady? We’re about to find out. The Patriots managed a 12-4 mark in 2019 despite a highly limited passing game because Belichick and his staff had the NFL’s best defenses, and perhaps one of the greatest secondaries in NFL history. That defense is back for the most part, but putting Jarrett Stidham — whose primary play in 2019 was a pick-six by Jets safety Jamal Adams — is a highly questionable move, even for someone of Belichick’s undeniable football genius. Perhaps a veteran like Cam Newton (whose schematic history actually merges quite well with what the Patriots do) could augment the quarterback room; or maybe Stidham will advance as a player as the team believes is possible. If not, this is a team that will have to make chicken salad out of something else on offense, and Brady is in Tampa with all the chicken salad.