24. Los Angeles Rams
Previous ranking: 24
The Los Angeles Rams, lacking a first-round selection, were forced to watch the proceedings on Thursday night. The picks they made on Day Two might pan out, if everything breaks in their favor. When they were finally on the clock at 52 overall, they added Florida State running back Cam Akers. The former Seminole is a good fit for their outside zone-heavy running game and a solid replacement for Todd Gurley, but ball security is an issue. Terrell Lewis has all the traits you want in a potential top-flight pass rusher, but fell to them because of a long injury history. Safety Terrell Burgess is a solid fit defensively given his ability to play in the single-high role as well as down in the box. Brycen Hopkins, a “tight end in name only,” could be a mismatch weapon for Sean McVay to play with all over the offense.
But the bit problem is just how far Jared Goff can take this team. Now with the big contract in hand, Goff has to take a big leap forward give how cash-strapped the team is. The economic model in today’s NFL is to load up around a cheap rookie quarterback and help him during his formative years, and hope when he gets the big deal that his level of play is enough to carry lesser talent – talent you can afford given how expensive the QB is – to the playoffs. Will we see that from Goff or not?
23. Denver Broncos
Previous ranking: 23
John Elway and the Denver Broncos entered the 2020 NFL Draft staring at the teams picking in front of them and wondering how far they would need to trade up to secure one of the top three receivers in the draft. They did not need to move at all, as Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy fell to them at fifteen. Jeudy is a solid all-around receiver and a great compliment to Courtland Sutton. Perhaps inspired by the wide receiver, they went and got another in the second round, adding K.J. Hamler from Penn State. That gives them a potentially scary 11 personnel WR grouping of Jeudy and Sutton on the outside with Hamler operating in the slot. With tight end Noah Fant working the middle of the field, this could be a tough group to defend. It might even make teams play more Cover 2, taking a safety out of the box, freeing up space for the running game.
Three picks in the later rounds stand out as potential sleepers. McTelvin Agim from Arkansas has a tremendous first step and can be a true disruptive force up front. Netane Muti, the guard from Fresno State, was graded as the top interior offensive lineman by Pro Football Focus (and the third-highest interior offensive lineman by Touchdown Wire) and is a very powerful player. Only his injury history saw him fall to the sixth round. Then there is pass rusher Derrek Tuszka, who posted great production a year ago with North Dakota State.
But this draft was about helping Drew Lock. Those two wide receivers at the top of the board go a long way towards achieving that goal. But until Lock performs at a level commensurate with the talent assembled around him, we’ll reserve judgment on moving them higher up the board.
22. Atlanta Falcons
Previous ranking: 22
Prior to the draft it was rumored that the Atlanta Falcons were trying desperately to get into the top of the draft to secure a cornerback, whether Jeff Okudah near the top of the board or C.J. Henderson somewhere near the top ten. When a deal failed to materialize, the Falcons stayed at 16 and drafted Clemson cornerback A.J.Terrell.
Now this pick was viewed as a bit of a reach, but I would posit that is due to recency bias. The lasting image many have of the Clemson DB is of his battle against Ja’Marr Chase in the National Championship Game, where the LSU receiver went off for over 200 yards receiving and a pair of touchdowns. Prior to the draft I went back through that game, and you saw a lot of wins by Chase at the catch point, and a game that perhaps looked bad watching live, but was not as awful as many made it out to be.
Imagine if, rather than that LSU game, Terrell’s final college game was the previous National Championship Game, which saw him perfectly execute a zone coverage scheme, jump a throw to the flat from Tua Tagovailoa, and house it for a Pick Six. Then this pick might be viewed differently.
Beyond the Terrell selection, Marlon Davidson can be a nice defender up front with the versatility to play inside or on the edge. Matt Hennessy is a very smart and experienced center, who often gets to two defenders on a single snap. The biggest problem facing Atlanta is not who they drafted this weekend, but the other additions to the NFC South. Namely that Brady guy for starters.
Those who are optimistic about Atlanta in 2020 can point to a few factors. First, they still have Julio Jones, and with Matt Ryan returning to something close to his 2016 form this offense should be improved. In addition, they’ll get Keanu Neal back after the safety has played in just four games over the past two years. That should also help this defense improve from a year ago.
21. Houston Texans
Previous Ranking: 21
Oh, yeah. That’s the good stuff.
Let’s look at the fall this season of the Houston Texans, shall we? In Touchdown Wire’s power ranking prior to free agency they stood 11th, just outside the Top Ten. Then, they traded away star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, which saw them tumble to the 17th spot. After that, they turned in a draft that was poorly graded not just here, but almost everywhere.
Ross Blacklock was one of my favorite players to watch this draft season, and should provide a boost to the interior of their defensive line in the wake of D.J. Reader’s departure. John Reid was a great pick near the end of the draft, and could be a surprise next season given how well he functions in zone coverage. But Jonathan Greenard, who they picked 90th, was a reach, and there is speculation that a deal with the Detroit Lions fell through and left Bill O’Brien holding the bag, and a player he did not want. Which, well, sums up this off-season better than I could.
If you want to be optimistic, they still have Deshaun Watson, one of the young talents at the quarterback position, and they should get a full season from J.J. Watt. In the AFC South, that could be enough to make a run at the division title.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
Previous ranking: 20
Both Chase Claypool and Alex Highsmith were productive players in college who tested well at the Combine and shined in pre-draft events like the Senior Bowl (Claypool) and the East-West Shrine Game (Highsmith). However, both players might be a bit of a developmental project, as Claypool could be used more like a big slot receiver or even a tight end, and Highsmith’s production came against lower level competition and he likely is used in a situational manner to start, given the presence of T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree. Then there is Antoine Brooks from Maryland, who did his best work back in 2018 when he was used as more of a box safety, meaning a potential position switch to linebacker might even be in the cards.
Without a first-round selection (unless you consider Minkah Fitzpatrick that pick in which case this draft becomes a home run) this was a decent showing for Pittsburgh. The main question is the health of Ben Roethlisberger. If he is healthy, they can afford to bring in players like this. If not, there are still going to be struggles. But so far as training camp has unfolded, Roethlisberger looks to be in good shape and ready for the season ahead. The AFC North could be a tough division in 2020, but this team sans Big Ben was still close a year ago. A healthy Roethlisberger could really close the gap between Pittsburgh and the rest of the division.
19. Cleveland Browns
Previous ranking: 19
This is a massive bet on Kevin Stefanski, after seeing what he did the past season for Kirk Cousins.
First, to the draft. The Cleveland Browns pounced when Jedrick Wills Jr., perhaps the top offensive tackle in the draft, fell to them at the tenth-overall selection. Wills was a rock star on the right side of Alabama’s offensive line, and while he perhaps faces a switch to left tackle (or the organization moves free agent signee Jack Conklin there) they should have bookend players to protect Baker Mayfield for the next eight years or so.
Cleveland then took advantage of another fall, when LSU safety Grant Delpit tumbled out of the first round and to their selection at 44 overall. The safety had some tackling issues a season ago but is a presence underneath against tight ends. A player to watch is Nick Harris. The Washington center does some of his best work on outside zone running plays. You know, the kind of design Stefanski builds his offense upon?
Of course, this all depends on Baker Mayfield. Despite what he showed at the end of his rookie season under interim head coach Freddie Kitchens, he could not duplicate his success in year two with Kitchens installed as the head coach. Although to be fair, those Progressive commercials were pretty funny…
But that is where Stefanski comes in. Last year with the Minnesota Vikings he built an offense anchored in the outside zone running game, with boot-action designs flowing off of those concepts. That turned Cousins into one of the game’s most effective and efficient passers, especially on play-action. While Mayfield had some issues last year, particularly when throwing from clean pockets, he was at his best when using play-action. Specifically, Mayfield saw the biggest jump in completion percentage when using play-action designs in 2019 out of any passer in the league. With more designs in the playbook, he should thrive.
18. Chicago Bears
Previous ranking: 17
Lacking a Day One pick, the Chicago Bears were forced to wait their turn. On the second night of the draft, they turned in two picks in relatively short order, which I suddenly feel the need to defend a bit given some of the stick I received for giving them a Day Two grade of a B-. Sure, they drafted yet another tight end in Cole Kmet from Notre Dame, giving them approximately 87 tight ends on their roster. But this was a brutal position for them a season ago, it is a critical role in Matt Nagy’s offense and is anyone really convinced that Jimmy Graham is any kind of answer for them, short-term or long? Yes, this is not the best tight end class but Kmet is likely the best all-around option. Then they added Jaylon Johnson, a corner wise beyond his years and someone who can step right in and be a starter. So they added two likely Week 1 starters in the second round. That is not a bad haul.
Chicago also added Darnell Mooney, a late-round pick at wide receiver but someone who was generating a lot of buzz heading into the draft. Plus, look at the last two picks: Arlington Hambright and Lachavious Simmons. Those get good grades on their names alone, although both are intriguing prospects.
Look, in the end what matters for Chicago is not their 87th tight end or a cornerback they drafted in the second round, but who wins the showdown of showdowns: Trubisky v Foles: The Melee of Mediocrity. Joking aside, if they can just find a quarterback to execute Matt Nagy’s offense and make throws on time and in rhythm, they will be a much-improved team on that side of the ball.
The Bears were one of the teams impacted recently by decisions from players to opt-out of the 2020 season due to concerns over COVID-19. Defensive tackle Eddie Goldman, a mainstay up front for Chicago the past few years, decided to forgo playing in the year ahead. He is not a household name but is a factor up front for this defense, which should again be the strength of the organization. This will have an impact in 2020.
17. Las Vegas Raiders
Previous ranking: 18
Man, the Las Vegas Raiders are going to be fun to watch.
And let’s face it, they were fun to watch draft. Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock made some quintessential Raiders selections, starting with making Henry Ruggs III the first wide receiver off the board. Many favored either CeeDee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy, given their all-around games, but nothing screams “Raiders” quite like a 4.27 40-yard dash. Somewhere Al Davis is smiling. But Ruggs is not just a burner, he had game-breaking ability after the catch which makes him a fit for their offense. Lynn Bowden is a versatile player that Gruden will love to design plays for, and Bryan Edwards is a physical presence at the catch point.
On the defensive side of the football, Tanner Muse is a hybrid type of player that could be viewed as a linebacker in the NFL, but in function he is likely a sub-package player that aligns at safety on some downs/against some offenses, but takes on more of an interior role against other teams. Amik Robertson is one of the more enjoyable corners to study, as he will fight you tooth and nail and plays much bigger than he measures.
Returning to the offense, Derek Carr has quietly been a very effective quarterback within the confines of Gruden’s system. With the weapons the front offense has assembled around him, another effective and efficient season could see the Raiders make some noise in the AFC.