Everybody does mock drafts, most everybody does more than one, and every mock draft is done for different reasons. To get clicks? Well, duh. That would be reason No. 1, dear reader. Let’s not be arch about this. That aside, what we’re trying to do when we drill down into different scenarios with all these different mocks is to get a sense of where things stand at the moment.
Where things stand at this moment is: The scouting combine is next week. Free agency doesn’t start until mid-March. Even the unofficial official tampering period is still weeks away. So, with this mock, let’s do away with the potential trades that will be incessantly discussed by the NFL’s power brokers at the Indianapolis Steak ‘n Shake at 3:30 a.m. Let’s instead look at where each team might go with their picks if the draft started now, without the benefit of combine drills, player interviews, pro days and knowing which roster holes will be filled in free agency. When the combine is done, it’ll provide an interesting reference point as we move forward with our future mocks.
Picks 1-8 | 9-16 | 17-24 | 25-32
1. Cincinnati Bengals (2-14): Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
One of the most hilarious things about the news lull between the Super Bowl and the scouting combine is the need to make a whole lot out of very little. Thus, we have Joe Burrow refusing to pledge absolute fealty to the Bengals, and What It All Means. (Here’s a good explainer of what it actually means). None of it really matters. The Bengals need to get themselves out of the quarterback purgatory they’ve been in with Andy Dalton since 2011, and Burrow brings a combination of arm talent, ability to throw on the move, and poise under pressure that reminds me of pre-injury Sam Bradford. It’s stuff you can improve upon, but you can’t really teach. Throw away the one-year wonder stuff, and bail on the concerns about his arm strength. Burrow is the best player in this draft class, and as such, should be the overwhelming first pick. Which he will be.
2. Washington Redskins (3-13): Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Ohio State
Wait, what? No Chase Young? Well, here’s what we know. The Redskins selected Mississippi State edge-rusher Montez Sweat with the 26th pick in the 2019 draft. Sweat could easily hit the second-year performance bump that edge defenders often see. Washington also has Ryan Kerrigan under contract through 2020 and the underrated Matt Ioannidis through 2022. It’s not as if new head coach Ron Rivera and new defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio wouldn’t benefit from Chase Young on their defensive line, but there’s also the matter of the secondary to consider. Washington just released cornerback Josh Norman in a cost-cutting and performance-based move. Outside of Quinton Dunbar, there’s nobody at the position who inspires much confidence at all, and the Redskins appear to be playing hardball with Dunbar. Okudah would solve some of the cornerback problem quickly; the ongoing franchise dysfunction is another matter entirely.
3. Detroit Lions (3-12-1): Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State
So, if the Redskins turn the 2020 draft upside down by not taking Chase Young, Matt Patricia’s Lions get an unrivaled edge-rusher, which is one of many things Detroit’s defense needs. Trey Flowers signed a five-year, $90 million contract with $56 million in guarantees last offseason and put up 61 total pressures despite dealing with injuries. Flowers and linebacker Devon Kennard combined for 14 sacks in 2019; everyone else in Detroit’s defense also combined for 14. Young is a game-wrecker at the level of the Bosa brothers — and he’ll make every part of Detroit’s defense better by that standard alone.
4. New York Giants (4-12): Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville
Two sure things about Giants general manager Dave Gettleman: He loves him some “Hog Mollies,” and he doesn’t give a rat’s posterior what anybody thinks about his picks. So, were Gettleman to take Becton, a 6-foot-7, 369-pound mauler and eraser in the run game with high potential for his frame in his pass sets, don’t be surprised. Becton might not be from the “Build Your Ideal Left Tackle” factory in the modern NFL, but as Gettleman has made clear on multiple occasions, he’s not scouting and signing for the modern NFL, anyway.
5. Miami Dolphins (5-11): Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
All signs are positive regarding Tagovailoa’s fractured hip, and thus his NFL future, which leaves us with his NFL potential. Tagovailoa doesn’t have the biggest arm in this draft class, but he checks most of the other boxes when you look at the needs for the new generation of dual-threat NFL quarterbacks who are redefining the position. While he’s more than adept in a shotgun/pistol offense with lots of run-pass options, he also shows the potential to shine under center with multiple reads at his disposal, both in and out of the pocket. Yes, he was surrounded with insane talent at Alabama, but 87 touchdowns to 11 interceptions and a 10.9 yards-per-attempt average over three seasons doesn’t just happen. Nick Saban has compared Tagovailoa to Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers in the abstract; that doesn’t just happen, either.
6. Los Angeles Chargers (5-11): Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
Were the Chargers to take Herbert here as they transition to the post-Philip Rivers era, it would be a great example of the importance of the quarterback position in regard to draft capital. Herbert isn’t the sixth-best player in this class; not even close. But he’s a big guy who can throw from the pocket; he has a smooth, gliding running style for his size, and there are enough shot plays on tape to make offensive coordinators and quarterback coaches set aside the rushed throws, general inaccuracies, and the fact that his long, lanky frame can lead to a deliberate release of the ball when quickness and decisiveness should be the order of the day.
7. Carolina Panthers (5-11): Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson
The Panthers are about to undergo a major rebuild with new head coach Matt Rhule, and if there’s one thing Rhule learned in his time as a college head coach — especially at Baylor over the past three seasons — it’s that you want as many athletes as possible on defense, no matter the situation. With Thomas Davis off to the Chargers last season and Luke Kuechly recently retired, the Panthers’ longtime linebacker paradigm could easily change. Shaq Thompson has become an athletic force as a new-school, built-like-a-safety linebacker, and Simmons fits a similar suit. At 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, this is not a traditional run-fit thumper; per Pro Football Focus, Simmons played over 100 snaps on the defensive line and at free safety, and over 200 snaps in the box and in the slot. As long as his NFL team doesn’t try to turn him into Mike Singletary, Simmons has the potential to be a lockdown modern defender at the highest level.
8. Arizona Cardinals (5-10-1): Jedrick Wills Jr., OT, Alabama
Kyler Murray already is stumping for the Cardinals to bring receiver CeeDee Lamb, his former Oklahoma teammate, to the Valley of the Sun. And it makes sense for a couple of reasons: Lamb is an outstanding playmaker, and it makes sense to keep your quarterback happy with targets he trusts. But methinks Murray, who absorbed a league-leading 48 sacks in his rookie campaign, will also be pleased if he isn’t forced to run for his life all the time. Re-signing left tackle D.J. Humphries was a step in the right direction, and putting Wills on the right side would cement Arizona’s tackle tandem as more than solid. The 6-foot-5, 320-pound Wills brings a nasty disposition to his run-blocking, and he’s technically proficient enough to help in a right-handed offense where the quarterback constantly expands the pocket.