17. Dallas Cowboys: K’Lavon Chaisson, EDGE, LSU
The Dallas Cowboys need some help on the edge across from Demarcus Lawrence. Look no further than some of the moves they made recently, signing the suspended Aldon Smith to a free-agent contract. That tells you how much of a need this position is.
While edge might not be the deepest position in this draft class, there are still players with true first-round potential and talent. K’Lavon Chaisson is one of those players. He enjoyed a true breakout season last year, notching seven sacks, seven quarterback hits and 21 quarterback hurries. He can convert speed to power off the edge and handles the running game well despite being viewed as a pass-rush specialist. He also shows tremendous balance on film and the ability to get home in an SEC that paired him against some tremendous talent at offensive tackle. There are things to clean up about his game, including teaching him how to counter better off the edge, but the skills are there for him to be a productive edge-rusher in the NFL.
18. Miami Dolphins: Josh Jones, OT, Houston
The Miami Dolphins entered free agency with a ton of cap space, and a ton of draft capital. They put the vast majority of their free agency dollars to good use. Players such as Kyle Van Noy, Shaq Lawson and Byron Jones are surely going to improve a unit that allowed a league-high 30.9 points per game.
Now they can look to the draft to shore up other areas of need. Obviously, a big part of the equation is figuring out the quarterback position, and in this scenario they hope to do that by drafting Tua Tagovailoa at No 5 and hoping the hip is clear. But offensive line is a need as well, and Josh Jones could be the ideal solution.
While most draft prognosticators view the tackle class as having a Big Four composed of Jedrick Wills Jr., Andrew Thomas, Tristan Wirfs and Mekhi Becton in some order, a Fab Five might be closer to how the NFL views this position. Jones was dominant this past season for Houston, and his pass blocking has been stellar for the past three years. Over that period of time, he allowed just 18 pressures on 1,282 pass-blocking snaps, according to charting data from Pro Football Focus. He could stand to improve on things such as hand placement and footwork, but there is a strong foundation in place.
19. Las Vegas Raiders: Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU
The Raiders have another position of need that they should address in the first round, outside of wide receiver. Having addressed the offensive side of the football already — adding Henry Ruggs III at No. 12 — they turn to the SEC again and address cornerback, another position of need.
Kristian Fulton has been a tremendous defender for the LSU Tigers for the past two seasons. In 2018, he was targeted 41 times in the passing game, but allowed just 17 receptions for 222 yards and a pair of touchdowns, and a passer rating when targeted of just 65.3. Last year, those numbers slipped a tiny bit, to a still-impressive passer rating of just 74.3 when targeted. Fulton moves extremely well at the position, is patient on double moves, and is a tough player at the catch point. He would be an immediate upgrade in the Raiders’ secondary.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars: A.J. Terrell, CB, Clemson
Having addressed the front of their defense earlier in the draft, the Jaguars can turn to their secondary with their second first-round selection. The idea of picking A.J. Terrell — who many will remember having a tough outing in the national championship game — could be met with some skepticism, but hear me out.
Obviously, cornerback is a need for this organization following the trade of A.J. Bouye to the Denver Broncos. But among other top corners, such as Cameron Dantzler, Jeff Gladney and Trevon Diggs, what makes Terrell the pick?
Jaguars defensive coordinator Todd Wash cut his teeth as a defensive line coach with the Seattle Seahawks under defensive coordinator Gus Bradley. Why is that important? Because it leads us to the “Seattle Cover 3” system, with the secondary playing Cover 3 coverage but out of a press man alignment from the cornerbacks (for a deep dive into this system, read this piece from former NFL safety Matt Bowen).
Cornerbacks in this system need man coverage skills and length. Terrell checks those boxes. He plays with incredible length from the line of scrimmage to the catch point. He moves extremely well for a cornerback of his size. Terrell would be a fit in what Wash is building on the defensive side of the football, and that makes him a smart selection at this spot for Jacksonville.
21. Philadelphia Eagles: Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU
It is rare to see consensus build around a pick this late in the first round, but everything is pointing to Justin Jefferson being the selection for the Philadelphia Eagles at this spot. The Eagles desperately need consistency from this position. Last year, due to a mix of injuries (DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery) and struggles (Nelson Agholor, JJ Arcega-Whiteside), Carson Wentz was throwing to guys like Greg Ward Jr. down the stretch and into the playoffs. With Agholor now in Las Vegas and Jeffery perhaps on his way out of town, wideout is a huge need.
Some might question whether Jefferson is a good fit for the Eagles. After all, he saw just five snaps outside of the slot last year, and with the Eagles running so much 12 offensive personnel (483 snaps, or 54% of their offensive plays) a boundary receiver makes more sense schematically. However, I would argue two points in rebuttal. First, were the Eagles running so much 12 personnel because they wanted to, or because they had to? While maybe they still wanted to, given their tight ends, it is something to consider.
Also worth considering is the fact that Jefferson is more than just a slot receiver. In 2018, he was a boundary receiver in the LSU offense, and as I highlighted in this film dive, he handled life on the outside well enough. Is it where he can be best used? No, but he can do it.
In addition, the Eagles would get a ball-winner at the catch point and a player who made 111 receptions for 1,540 yards with 18 touchdowns in LSU’s offense last season. He is perhaps the ideal pick for Philadelphia.
22. Minnesota Vikings: Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor
The Minnesota Vikings have two big areas of need in this draft: cornerback and wide receiver. Having lost last year’s starting cornerback tandem of Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes, and having traded Stefon Diggs to the Buffalo Bills (in exchange for this very selection), those two positions need to be addressed — and hopefully in the first round.
Back in December, Mims might have seemed an unlikely first-round selection. But his pre-draft process has been the kind of tale that they sing about in mead halls. First, he was the arguably the best wide receiver in Mobile during Senior Bowl week, flashing his vertical ability in the passing game on rep after rep during the practices at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. Then he went to Indianapolis for the combine and tore up Lucas Oil Stadium, posting a 4.38 40-yard dash, a vertical jump of 38.5 inches and a broad jump of 10 feet, 11 inches. He checked every single box.
That has propelled him into the first round, and into the Vikings offense. Mims is a dangerous threat on the boundary in the vertical passing game, and he displays incredible body control adjusting to back-shoulder throws and other routes off target. He can be a security blanket for Kirk Cousins along the boundary while developing a more complete route tree. With other weapons such as Adam Thielen, Irv Smith Jr. and Kyle Rudolph in place, as well as Dalvin Cook in the running game, Mims can be a vertical threat off of play-action and give Cousins that ball-winner he needs on third-down situations.
23. Indianapolis Colts: Jordan Love, QB, Utah State
VIA trade with the New England Patriots. New England sends pick No. 23 overall. Indianapolis sends picks Nos. 34 and 75 and a 2021 fifth-round pick.
I am going to speak this coach/quarterback pairing into existence, or die trying.
Having signed Philip Rivers this offseason, the Indianapolis Colts can afford to pack some patience when they think about the quarterback of the future. But that does not mean they should kick the decision down the road any more than necessary. Jordan Love has flaws that he will need to sort out as he transitions to the NFL, in particular his decision-making, but he has things you cannot teach. Arm talent. Athleticism. Play-making ability outside of the pocket. He just needs a coach with a proven track record of quarterback development, and Frank Reich is one of the rare individuals in the NFL with something like that on his résumé. Reich was part of the group that coached Carson Wentz when he was drafted by the Eagles.
From New England’s perspective, the Patriots lack a second-round pick at the moment, and adding that plus another pick in the third round gives them five picks to work with on the second day of the draft. They’ll trust their scouts and hope to do some damage on Friday night.
24. New Orleans Saints: Patrick Queen, LB, LSU
The New Orleans Saints entered free agency with a few needs. First, make sure to get Drew Brees back in the fold. Mission accomplished there. Second, they needed to add another receiving threat for Brees, someone to put opposite Michael Thomas. Mission accomplished in the form of Emmanuel Sanders, coming over on a free-agency deal after reaching the Super Bowl with the San Francisco 49ers.
The next item on the to-do list is to find someone to help on the second level of the defense. They lost A.J. Klein in free agency, and adding a linebacker would be a big move for their defense. After Isaiah Simmons (if you consider him a linebacker), there are questions about who LB2 might be in this class, but from where I sit, that player is Patrick Queen. He is a modern NFL linebacker, a player who looks more like a safety but plays all over the field. He is a linebacker who can be a force in coverage but still manages to play downhill against the run. Queen is also a raw talent, with just one real season of playing experience, so there is huge growth potential.