NFL decision-makers tend to be a risk-averse group. Owners often hire familiar coaches. General managers tend to draft players who are safe with a high floor. So the idea that one team — let alone all of them — would turn over their picks in the first round to a lawyer-turned-football writer such as myself would be wildly out of character. To the point that if you pitched it as a Hollywood movie, you would be laughed out of a conference room.
On the other hand …”Air Bud” made it to the silver screen. So …
Mock drafts take many forms. There is the predictive mock draft, where the writer tries to guess what happens. Then there is the what I would do mock, where the writer shows his or her cards. Here is how the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft would play out if I were calling the shots in each draft room, or in today’s parlance, in each draft Zoom meeting.
1. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
Do not overthink this, Cincinnati. The quarterback of your future, and a local kid at that, is staring you in the face. Sure, there are rumblings that Joe Burrow might want to play somewhere else. Yes, a team might offer you a king’s ransom to come up to the first spot for the right to take him. That should tell you something. Sit tight, draft the kid with the pocket awareness, competitive toughness and accuracy to be a great quarterback.
2. Washington Redskins: Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State
Last summer, a tremendous debate raged in the football Twitter world. Spurred on by the folks at Pro Football Focus, the question was this: What matters more? Pass rush or coverage?
As with any football debate, battle lines were drawn, and flags were planted.
The Washington Redskins have a chance to plant a flag of their own in response to that heated debate. Provided Joe Burrow is the first player selected, then Washington and new head coach Ron Rivera can pick between pass-rush (Chase Young) or coverage (Jeff Okudah). Most observers believe Rivera will opt for the pocket crusher over the receiver eraser. Recently, some writers such as Benjamin Solak at The Draft Network and even yours truly in a previous mock draft have suggested that Okudah is the smarter pick, given the more pressing need in the secondary for Washington.
In the end, however, Rivera picks the player who forces opposing offenses into an almost-impossible choice: Whom do you focus your attention on when crafting protection schemes? Ryan Kerrigan, Montez Sweat or Young?
3. Detroit Lions: Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State
With the loss of Darius Slay via a trade with the Philadelphia Eagles, the Detroit Lions now have a huge need at the cornerback position. They can address that with a scheme-diverse, fluid cornerback in Jeff Okudah out of Ohio State. He has lockdown corner potential, as demonstrated by the numbers from his final season with the Buckeyes. Last year, Okudah allowed opposing passers a passer rating of just 45.3 when he was targeted, giving up just 27 catches on 58 targets for one touchdown, with three interceptions. Matt Patricia can look to use him on an island in man coverage schemes, but he also has the versatility to play off coverage or even in zones. He is a great scheme fit for what Patricia wants to dial up defensively.
4. New York Giants: Jedrick Wills Jr., OT, Alabama
There seems to be a growing consensus that the New York Giants, and general manager Dave Gettleman, will select Clemson defensive standout Isaiah Simmons with this pick. It would make a ton of sense, as Simmons can contribute on all levels of the defense, fits the mold of positionless football the league is moving toward, and immediately could improve a Giants defense that — let’s face it — needs some improvement.
But if we have learned anything from the past few seasons of the NFL, the modius operandi for teams with a rookie quarterback is to give him as much help as possible. For the Giants, that means protecting Daniel Jones. New York has started to piece together a solid offensive line, with Nate Solder and Will Hernandez on the left side and Kevin Zeitler slotted in at right guard, but as of this moment there is a need at right tackle. Cameron Fleming, signed in free agency, is a prototype swing tackle but probably not the long-term answer at that position.
Enter Wills. The Alabama right tackle has been a force up front for the Crimson Tide the past few seasons, and he is explosive, powerful and agile on the edge. He is a brutal mauler as a run-blocker, and gave up just a single sack during his career at Alabama on 970 pass-blocking snaps.
That will help Jones.
5. Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
Remember, this is a what I would do mock draft and not a what I think will happen mock draft.
Reading the tea leaves, it seems as if the former Alabama signal-caller might be starting to slide a bit in the eyes of the NFL. Rumors of failed physicals and concerns about his potential longevity have some pundits wondering if Tagovailoa will get picked in the first round at all. But this is lying season, when stories are told to influence people and manipulate opponents.
Tagovalioa, on the field, is a very clean evaluation. He has an extremely quick release, throws with accuracy to all levels, and has the athleticism to create outside of the pocket. With Ryan Fitzpatrick in place, and the additions the Dolphins have made so far in free agency, they can afford to be patient with Tagovailoa and make sure he is ready to go before inserting him into the lineup. Miami is perhaps the ideal setting for him.
6. Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
There are some common reasons players get pushed up draft boards, beyond what their overall ranking might look like in a particular draft class. A player might play at a particular position that is of dire need for a team, forcing the organization to perhaps reach for him earlier than other teams would be willing to. The player might play a position that has just a handful of solid prospects in that year’s class, and the team might fear missing out.
Or the player could be a quarterback.
In a vacuum, Justin Herbert might not be a player with a first-round grade, let alone a top-10 grade. But given the premium status of the position, QBs get pushed up boards artificially. The Los Angeles Chargers might be willing to roll with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback to start the 2020 season, but they are in a position now where they can think about a life beyond the end of the calendar year. In Herbert they get a prospect with a live arm, the athleticism to fit where the position and game are trending, and the ability to read leverage in the secondary with consistency. With Taylor in place, they can fill in the gaps around that foundation.
7. Carolina Panthers: Isaiah Simmons, Defense, Clemson
The Big 12, and specifically Big 12 defenses, present easy punching bags when it comes to viewing the schemes those teams play on Saturdays in the fall. With wide-open offenses, defenses that rely on sub packages and quarterbacks throwing to open receivers in space, it is common to hear criticism of prospects coming out of that conference. But if you dig into what NFL teams are doing on both sides of the ball, you might find that teams on Sundays are starting to borrow from what teams in the Big 12 are doing on Saturdays.
Matt Rhule, the new head coach of the Panthers, knows where the game is headed schematically. Specifically, on the defensive side of the football, you need players who can be matchup pieces. With so many offensive coaches, such as Josh McDaniels, Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay, looking to create and exploit mismatches offensively, defenses will need a versatile player who can lock down a tight end in coverage on first down, a slot receiver on second down, and perhaps rush the passer as part of a blitz package on third down.
That is Isaiah Simmons. He will give Rhule and the Panthers a matchup weapon on the defensive side of the football, a player seemingly created in a laboratory to erase offensive threats at all levels of the field.
8. Arizona Cardinals: Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa
The Arizona Cardinals made one of the splashiest moves this offseason, trading for DeAndre Hopkins. They add the talented wide receiver to an offense that looks to be trending in the right direction around second-year quarterback Kyler Murray.
But they do need to protect Murray, and while the Cardinals made some moves up front this offseason, such as signing left tackle D.J. Humphries to a contract extension and signing right tackle Marcus Gilbert, making sure they have the right mix of players up front to protect Murray is still a priority.
They can find a potential bookend tackle by drafting Tristan Wirfs. The powerful right tackle comes from a system at Iowa that is varied in both the running game and with its pass protection schemes. Wirfs has the size, power and lateral movement skills to protect Murray immediately. Some observers have stated that he would be a potential convert to guard, given his perceived lack of length, but turn on his film and watch his hands, feet and hips work in pass protection, and you’ll be convinced he is an NFL tackle.