The Toronto Raptors (23-23) stop by the FTX Arena Saturday for an 8 p.m. ET game against the Miami Heat (32-17). Below, we look at the Raptors vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Toronto has alternated between winning and losing over the past five games with the latest being a 111-105 loss at the Chicago Bulls as 4-point road underdogs.
Over the past two weeks, the Raptors are 3-4 straight-up (SU) and 4-3 against the spread (ATS) but Toronto PG Fred VanVleet has missed the past two games.
Miami defeated the Los Angeles Clippers 121-115 last night (Friday) at home but failed to cover as 8.5-point favorites. The Heat enter on a three-game winning streak.
In the last 14 days, the Heat are 5-2 SU with a plus-6.0 adjusted net rating (ranked fifth) and 4-3 ATS with a minus-0.3 ATS margin, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
The Heat (-4) won and covered their first meeting this season with the Raptors 104-99 Jan. 12. Miami shot better than Toronto from everywhere on the floor and outrebounded the Raptors 49-45.
Raptors at Heat odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Raptors +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Heat -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Raptors +3.5 (-105) | Heat -3.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 208.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Raptors at Heat key injuries
Raptors
- PG Fred VanVleet (knee) questionable
- C Khem Birch (nose) out
Heat
- SF Jimmy Butler (toe) questionable
- PG Kyle Lowry (personal) questionable
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Raptors at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 111, Raptors 109
Money line
PASS because there’s a lot of uncertainty with both teams’ injury reports. VanVleet may return for the Raptors, and if that’s the case, I’d “lean” towards Toronto’s money line.
Miami could still be without Lowry and Butler was listed on the injury report as questionable for the Heat’s game against the Clippers yesterday. I wouldn’t be shocked if Butler sat out the second of this back-to-back.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to the RAPTORS +3.5 (-105) for a one-third-unit, if at all, because my favorite wager in this game is the Over.
That said, Toronto has the eighth-best ATS margin over the past two weeks (plus-1.4), per CTG, and the Raptors are 17-8 ATS versus teams with a winning record (8-5 ATS on the road).
On top of that, I’m noticing some reverse line movement in the betting market as a vast majority of the action is on the Heat -3.5 (-170), but they’ve been lowered from a 5.5-point favorite on the look-ahead line. Typically, it’s a red flag whenever sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.
Over/Under
BET the OVER 208.5 (-108) for 1 unit because the Raptors-Heat total has already been steamed up 1-point from the look-ahead number and based on several trendy reasons.
For instance, Miami is 6-1 O/U in the second of a back-to-back (plus-6.6 total margin) and 7-0 O/U when playing with a rest disadvantage (plus-12.1 total margin).
Also, Toronto is 9-2 O/U when playing with a rest advantage (plus-11.0 total margin), the Raptors are 10-9 O/U as a road underdog and the Heat are 10-9 O/U as a home favorite.
Furthermore, Miami is 25th in defensive FT/FGA rate, Toronto is 27th and two of the three referees assigned to this game have officiated more Overs than Unders. Both teams could spend a lot of time at the foul line Saturday given their defensive free-throw rates and the officiating crew.
For the record, the OVER 208.5 (-108) is my favorite wager in this game.
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